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May 13, 2006

Hot Stories: Bush Job Ratings, NSA Program

Beltway Boys

MORT KONDRACKE, CO-HOST: Coming up on THE BELTWAY BOYS, President Bush gets ready to speak out on immigration reform amid new evidence that conservatives abandoning him and the GOP Congress in droves.

FRED BARNES, CO-HOST: Congress is up in arms over a report that the NSA is collecting records of private phone calls. We will tackle both the substance and the timing of the report.

KONDRACKE: John McCain makes nice with his former rival Jerry Falwell.

BARNES: And the GOP is stuck with Katherine Harris in the Florida Senate race.

KONDRACKE: BELTWAY BOYS are up next, right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

THE BELTWAY BOYS with Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracke starts right now.

BARNES: I'm Fred Barnes.

KONDRACKE: And I'm Mort Kondracke. We are THE BELTWAY BOYS.

Well, the hot story of the week is hitting bottom. The Gallup Poll has President Bush's approval rating at 31 percent which is a historic low for him. It is not historic low in all time American terms. He is still two points above where his father was at his bottom.

And as you can see, Harry Truman was down to 22 percent during the Korean War in February 1952. In terms of Bush now, among Democrats, Bush's approval has dropped 25 points and among independents it is down 30 points but most worrisome in terms of Republicans prospects in this November's election is the 25-point drop among Republicans.

A demoralized base means low turnout, as you've pointed out, and the possible loss of one house or another or maybe even both in November election which will lead to investigations and probably even lower poll ratings for President Bush. The Republican Congress is not doing itself any great favors. Here is the cover of your pale rival of a conservative publication "National Review," about its opinion about Congress.

"National Review's" Kate O'Beirne and Rich Lowry wrote, quote, "Congressional Republican governance has gone through phases that can only be described as revolution, consolidation and deterioration. The deterioration has steadily gotten worst and the Republican majority has lately been notable for bungling, fecklessness, self-serving defensiveness and hysteria, sometimes all at once."

That's really going to encourage the base, that kind of talk.

BARNES: I think that quote was written for somebody to repeat on television but in any case - You don't have any more polls - at the moment. There may be more on the polls but as usual you exaggerate the significance of polls, not that they are meaningless, but look, there is no question that President Bush is down but here is what I would say. With the midterm election six months off there is a lot that President Bush and congressional Republicans can do, I think, to revive their chances in the fall election. Obviously, if the election were held today we would probably lose the House, some seats in the Senate and it would look pretty bad. If it were today. But it is six months off.

And there is a lot they can do on issues. Because that's where it's going to make a difference. Now, the biggest issue is Iraq and they cannot do much on that in the short run but look at these five issues where they could do something and it may have some effect.

Number one is tax cuts is one. The Senate passed a tax cut extending the cut on dividends and on capital gains for another two years to 2010. Important. It's what's jacked up the economy. Democrats would have voted -- they want it raise those taxes. That is certainly not going to help them in the fall election when that's brought to the voters' attention, and it will be.

KONDRACKE: And the Republicans are planning another tax cut even more popular with tuition credits and the R&D tax credit extended and so on. Fortunately there will not be the repeal of estate tax which is purely gravy for rich families.

BARNES: You know why getting rid of that tax poll so well? Because people think it is morally wrong to tax somebody at death, that's the reason.

Number two, congressional spending. Well, they need to do some spending cuts. They haven't done a very good job of it. Congress hasn't. They are holding on to earmarks. I think an ingenious think for the president to do would be look, I'm not going to sign any spending legislation that has any earmarks in it at all. But he will not do that.

KONDRACKE: And he issued a veto threat against his own defense supplemental because of the pork in it that would serve him well if he could veto something and show he is a spending cutter.

BARNES: Number three, conservative judges, they are going to be flooding - nominations of conservative judges are going to flood the Senate this year. There are eight or continue appeals court judges alone that are on the docket there waiting to be dealt with. Brett Kavanaugh, a conservative judge is scooting through and will be confirmed. This is an issue that helps Republicans. Republicans and conservatives.

KONDRACKE: But it hurts somewhat when he puts up clunkers like this guy Terrence Boyle who may get pulled back. He's got conflict of interest troubles.

BARNES: But if you know anything about it, you've got to look into it, Mort, you'll find there is no conflict .

KONDRACKE: I've heard what you have to say.

BARNES: No, look into it on your own. Do you own reporting.

Number four, immigration reform. The president -- they will have a speech on Monday. I think he is going to emphasize border enforcement to win back Republicans but he is also for earned citizenship. I personally think they ought to put off a guest worker program for now.

I know the its supporters are the business community, but they can get by without it. Border enforcement and earned citizenship for illegal immigrants already here. That is enough for now.

KONDRAKCE: I think you need a guest worker program to have the program make any sense. But for the first time, in spite of what the Republicans in the House are saying, I think there is a real chance for comprehensive immigration reform to get through both congresses, both houses of Congress and it will be a great thing.

BARNES: Absolutely. I think you are right. It will be a great thing. One thing America does well is assimilate immigrants. We've been doing it for 200 years.

Number five, a federal amendment banning gay marriage. Now there is a vote in the Senate on June 6th scheduled by Bill Frist, the majority leader that will be important. It will important for a couple of reason. It will be important, one because there is a new coalition that has really legitimized this amendment, I think, a huge religious coalition of Catholics including every Catholic cardinals in the country, evangelical Protestants including Southern Baptists and many, many others, and Mormons. It's a huge coalition behind this. They are not going to get two thirds of the Senate for sure, which they need to pass this amendment, but they are going to pick up some steam.

And conservatives are in favor of this.

KONDRACKE: I am sure conservatives are in favor of this. But the Bush administration is not making this is major priority. This is pandering.

BARNES: No it's not.

KONDRACKE: Pandering to conservatives on the part of Bill Frist.

BARNES: They believe in it. Look at the polls. People think gay marriage is improper. They are not for it.

KONDRACKE: But it is still pandering on the part of Bill Frist on the part of his presidential campaign.

BARNES: Coming up, could the latest NSA disclosure complicate things for Michael Hayden becoming CIA director? Hot story number two is straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We are not mining or trolling through the personal lives of millions innocent Americans. Our efforts are focused on links to al Qaeda and their known affiliates. So far we have been successful in preventing another attack on our soil.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: Welcome back to THE BELTWAY BOYS. Hot story number two, telephone tag. We are Mort, of course, about this collection of telephone numbers by the National Security Agency. And I think in the first place, the story that touched off the furor about this in "USA Today" was a hyped story saying they were reaching into the homes and businesses of Americans around the country. They are not. There are no names or addresses attached to these numbers. It's just telephone numbers.

Two, I think the program is obviously legal. Courts have ruled in the past they talked about the telephone companies giving up the phone numbers and it's not an invasion of privacy.

Number three, it makes sense. I mean you can learn from this when they are mining through these billions of numbers, they can find out who in - when they know an al Qaeda phone number, who that number has been connecting with, what other numbers and they can find out also who has been calling that number. It is a way to find out patterns of where al Qaeda may be active.

And then there is the reaction. The reaction in the Senate, in particular, where the former NSA director Michael Hayden who is now number two in the director of national intelligence, has been nominated by Bush to head the CIA and the reaction is that this may be some problems for him because it was at the NSA - he was the head of the NSA when this began.

And I just found the reaction of not only of Democrats but Republicans, but particularly Democrats not encouraging. Pat Leahy, the senator from Vermont said they are doing the stuff with the telephone records for the heck of it. They are not doing it for the heck of it. Is that what he thinks of a serious national - something about protecting America's national security? And then there was Dianne Feinstein of California, who is usually pretty good, listen to her.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN, (D) CA: We are on our way to a major constitutional confrontation Fourth Amendment guarantee of unreasonable search and seizure. And I think this is also going to present a growing impediment to the confirmation of General Hayden. And I think that is very regretted.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: She apparently flipped her -- She liked Hayden in the beginning.

KONDRACKE: But the Democrats are invested in making George Bush into the imperial president who is trotting on our civil liberties and all that kind of stuff. This provides an opportunity for General Hayden during his confirmation hearings to knock it out of the park without revealing the details of -- all the classified details explaining why this is important in tracking terrorist networks and establishing the kind of patterns of their communication and also establishing what the legal basis of it is, quoting court decisions and stuff like that to establish that is absolutely fair and legal.

Now the other complication for Hayden is this controversy - rivalry between the CIA and the Pentagon over who is going to conduct human intelligence and covert operations. Now, in his usual, typical way Donald Rumsfeld said this controversy is a figment of the press's imagination. Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD RUMSFELD, DEFENSE SECRETARY: There is no power play taking place in Washington. People can go around and find somebody to tell them anything they want. But it is interesting how little facts are attached to these thumb suckers that get printed in the press.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: . those thumb suckers again, Mort.

KONDRACKE: Thumb suckers.

Hayden is a general but he has also stood up to Rumsfeld in the past. Now there is also the rap that this is a power grab by John Negroponte, the director of national intelligence. Of course it is. Negroponte is in charge and he wants his deputy to be in charge of the CIA. It is like it is a power grab for George Bush to name the vice president. Come on. That is the way things work.

BARNES: But there really is. The Pentagon really has stepped up its intelligence efforts. Why has it done that? Because the CIA has done such a lousy job. Remember, the CIA, that is where the idea of weapons of mass destruction that Saddam Hussein had, that was a slam dunk according to the CIA. They have been terrible. They were terrible during the Cold War in their intelligence, they've been terrible now.

And the Pentagon wants it get reliable intelligence. It is not a power play, it is just an effort to get credible intelligence, and maybe even some human intelligence.

KONDRACKE: The analysis has been lousy, but boy, those guys and horseback riding .

BARNES: They were great.

KONDRACKE: There's nothing wrong with them.

BARNES: Nothing wrong with them at all.

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