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May 20, 2006
Base Doesn't Trust Bush on Illegal Immigration
By Tom BevanHere's the irony of President Bush's speech to the nation on Monday night about the need for comprehensive immigration reform: If he had given the exact same speech two or three years ago, many conservatives would have been quite pleased. Not today. The reaction to Bush's speech among conservatives was, to put it kindly, less than favorable. The base of the party may still like this president, but they don't trust him when it comes to dealing with illegal immigration.
Why not? For one thing, President Bush has done plenty of talking about illegal immigration before but is perceived to have done little by way of follow-through. For another, two of the major points in the plan outlined by Bush Monday night (enforcing existing laws and the deploying National Guard troops to assist border control efforts) don't require congressional action. Bush could have given orders to do either of these things at any point during the last few years, but didn't.
Bush did his best to address the concerns of the "enforcement first" crowd by spending close to half his time Monday night dealing with the issue of border security. The details of Bush's proposal are substantial: 6,000 new border patrol agents brought on line over the next two years (a 50 percent increase), up to 6,000 National Guard troops deployed to border states in the interim to provide logistical assistance such as surveillance and construction, an increase in federal grants to border states to expand local law enforcement operations, and a significant upgrade in technology deployed along the border to enhance our ability to locate, apprehend, process and deport those trying to enter the country illegally.
Three years ago this type of proposal would have gotten an "Amen" from conservatives and would have paved the way for a compromise on other aspects of reform like a guest worker program and legalization. But this week it got a collective shrug, with some conservatives calling it "too little, too late" and others comparing it to a replay of the 1986 Simpson-Mazzoli bill, which traded amnesty for immigrants residing in the United States illegally in return for a promise to crack down on employers who hired undocumented workers -- a promise never fulfilled.
Today the number of illegal immigrants living in the United States is estimated between 10 million to 12 million -- close to four times the number 20 years ago when Congress thought it had fixed the problem for good -- and the flow of those coming across the border illegally continues at a rate of about 500,000 per year (over a million more are caught and deported). After six years in office with a more or less status quo immigration policy, that means millions of immigrants have entered the country illegally on President Bush's watch. Conservatives would be much more inclined to stomach the other provisions of a comprehensive immigration reform bill if they absolutely trusted Bush to make good on a promise to try and cut off the flow of those coming into the country illegally. But they don't.
The result is that conservative Republican members in the House and the Senate would rather have no bill at all than a compromise piece of legislation they believe is akin to amnesty. The middle ground the president staked out on Monday night may indeed lead to an immigration bill making its way to his desk in the not-too-distant future. But it's most likely going to be a bill passed with help of Democrats in the House and the Senate and over the objections of many conservatives.
With the midterm elections only a few months away and Republican majorities in both chambers hanging in the balance, demoralizing the group of people your party needs most to win in November is a dangerous move. If Bush is going to sign a comprehensive immigration bill that includes a guest worker program and a pathway to citizenship for those currently living here illegally, he'd better make sure there is a significant, immediate and well-publicized effort to shore up border security. If that happens, Bush might be able to win back some of the trust he's lost with conservatives on the issue of illegal immigration. If not, it'll be gone for good.
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