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April 23, 2006

Hot Stories: White House Shuffle, High Gas Prices

Beltway Boys

MORT KONDRACKE, CO-HOST: Coming up on "The Beltway Boys," the White House shuffle continues. We'll take a closer look at this week's staff changes and if more are on the way.

FRED BARNES, CO-HOST: Gas prices and frustration with Washington continue to soar. We'll have the political and economic fallout.

KONDRACKE: It's an unfair trade partner and has a dismal human rights record. So why did China's president get the royal treatment this week?

BARNES: And innocent until proven guilty? Not according to Duke University. We'll explain.

KONDRACKE: "The Beltway Boys" are up next, right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

BARNES: I'm Fred Barnes.

KONDRACKE: And I'm Mort Kondracke. We're "The Beltway Boys," where the hot story of the week is battle stations.

The latest FOX poll shows that President Bush's approval rating is at a new low, 33 percent, down 7 points since last month.

And Congress' job approval is even lower, 25 percent, down 9 points since the beginning of the year.

And what we're close to here is the kind of numbers that you had in 1994 before the republicans took over control of Congress from the democrats. And the stakes in this election could not be higher.

I mean, the Democrats, if they get a hold of one house or the other of Congress, will investigate President Bush and the administration nonstop. And if they control the House, you can't rule out impeachment.

So that's the Republicans are going to battle stations and that's why, Karl Rove -- I mean, this talk about Karl Rove being demoted is just bunk. I mean, Karl Rove had to take hive off some of these administrative responsibilities that he's had in the first year of the second term and concentrate on what he does best, which is strategy and message and politics, in order to try to save the situation from disaster.

Now, to Bush's credit, in the shakeup -- so called -- he is not doing what the conventional wisdom was demanding, that is, you know, replace everybody in the White House with a bunch of Washington establishment types.

He's basically promoted or advanced people who are already in the administration, like Josh Bolten, who has been with him ever since the 2000 campaign, and Joel Kaplan, who has been Josh Bolten's assistant the whole way. This young guy who's a former marine captain and a brilliant Supreme Court clerk.

And then you have Rob Portman, who used to be called Bush's best friend in Congress, who's now OMB director and is presumably going to try to repair things between Bush and the congressional Republicans.

BARNES: Actually, Bolten did a lot in that direction as well when he was the budget chief before Portman coming in.

Mort, Bush is not so desperate that he's going to hire some of your buddies in the Washington establishment, like Ed Duberstein and Dave Gergen, who are all the senators and the administration officials that are still hanging on this, in town, and create this Washington establishment, whose conventional wisdom you quoted exactly.

Remember after Iran-Contra, when Ron Reagan -- he brought in Howard Baker and Duberstein and all these Washington types? This was late in '86 or `87. And they were going to revive his administration? That didn't work. He limped out of office. It was pathetic.

The notion there are these gray beards and old hands that have this great wisdom and advice that are going to help your presidency recover is nonsense.

Now, the press secretary's job, which you didn't get to, is, I think, an enormously important one, under rated job there. I mean, obviously the press secretary, next t the president, is the face of the administration. And so that's important.

But I think there's another thing about the press secretary that's important. And one, he doesn't have to be a pincushion. This can be someone who promotes and defends and fights for administration policies. It's somebody who doesn't have to take any guff off the press.

I mean, I think the public would love to see a press secretary who put the White House Press Corps in its place. And they haven't seen that in a long time, that's for sure.

KONDRACKE: Yes, well, this sort of reminds you of the "Godfather," when the Corleone family says to Tom Hagin, you know, sorry, Tom, we need a wartime consigliore.

BARNES: Right.

KONDRACKE: Well, I think what the administration needs is a wartime press secretary. Now, I think Bush deserves credit as well for not caving into the pressure to can Don Rumsfeld. And here's Bush saying ain't going to happen. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: Now, I'm the decider. And I decide what is best. And what's best is for Don Rumsfeld to remain as the secretary of defense.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(LAUGHTER)

BARNES: I'm the decider.

KONDRACKE: I'm the decider, right.

BARNES: Only Bush could come up with a line like that.

KONDRACKE: Yeah, right. Well, look, I think Rumsfeld has made a lot of mistakes in the Iraq war. But he is the guy who is in the position to correct the mistakes. And I think he's been adjusting strategy the whole way along.

And furthermore, Bush did not want to acknowledge that this enterprise has been a failure by canning the guy who's most responsible for it.

BARNES: Yes. I want to go back to a couple things. One, the two candidates for the press secretary job are guys we know, Tony Snow right here at FOX, our buddy; Dan Senor, who was the press secretary and spokesman for Paul Bremer in the first year in Iraq after it was liberated. Both very good. I think both will be tough and aggressive. I'm not sure whose going to have the job or not, but either one of those would be good.

Now, back to the 33 percent job approval number. That's incredibly low. But I think if reflects more than just hostility to Bush, of which there`s plenty. I think it reflects this weariness around the country, and this sourness and this whininess that we hear so much. And I think that's also reflected in the even lower job approval rating for Congress.

Now here's what the president and Republicans really have to worry about. And that is something that sounds high, 66 percent of Republicans think that the president's -- they look favorably on the president. That's a low number.

For Republicans to do well and be excited and turn out to vote this fall in the midterm election, that's got to be up in the high 80s or 90s. And that's where it was in 2002 and 2004, when Republicans had good years.

KONDRACKE: Yes. Now, there is a pole number, which reflects the malaise in the country. It's called the Right Track, Wrong Track number, which I believe I've heard you dismiss.

BARNES: Yes, I do.

KONDRACKE: But just for the record -- just for the record, it's at 27 percent, which is very low. And 67 percent think that the country's on the wrong track.

BARNES: It reflects malaise. But it doesn't reflect -- it's been used in something that reflects the status of an administration or the feeling about a president. It's a feeling in the country.

Now, for instance, do you think, on this poll -- remember Richard Nixon was at 33 percent in early 1974 or late 1973? Was he in the same place as President Bush? It's a completely different situation, but similar poll numbers.

KONDRACKE: Look, there's a lot of sourness out there in the country...

BARNES: I know.

KONDRACKE: ... toward George Bush. A lot already.

BARNES: Yes, but it's not -- 33 percent doesn't reflect where his actual standing and effectiveness is. Really, Mort, I'm not kidding.

Coming up, gas prices are rising and so are the tempers of fed up Americans. Who's to blame? And is Washington finally listening. That story number two is straight ahead?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: I'm concerned about how our gasoline prices -- I'm concerned what it means to the working families and small businesses. And I'm also mindful that the government has the responsibility to make sure that we watch very carefully, and investigate possible price gouging. And we'll do just that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: Welcome back to "The Beltway Boys." This week's second hot story, gas up, Bush down.

Look, the president ought to be concerned about this whole gas price thing, because politically it is ruinous for him and for Republicans. Mort, you know, there is a direct relationship. When gas prices go up, Bush's presidential poll ratings go down.

Some academic has traced it over his entire administration, going back to 2001. And the lines, they go right together. And this ought to be incredibly worrisome to him and everybody in the Republican Party.

Now, against my better judgment, but to titillate you more, and only to titillate you, I'm going to bring up several more polls, with your permission.

According to the latest FOX poll, 72 percent say economic conditions in the U.S. are either fair or poor. Well, that's a nutty response. But in any case, here's another one. It's a little better on the individual level. Fifty-two percent say their personal economic situation is either fair or poor, 46 percent say it's excellent or good. And lastly, and when asked why they feel economic conditions are bad, 59 percent blame it on rising gas prices.

Well, Mort, rising gas prices are easily explainable by supply and demand. We have a free market economy. Supply goes down, demand is up. What happens? Prices get higher.

So if the public is so concerned about this, my advice would be stop grousing, stop whining, stop being interviewed on television about what a terrible thing this is, if you're paying a little more for gas. And promote and lobby and call for something that will do something about it. And what it the best thing to do? Increase supply.

Demand's not going to go down. People want to stay in their cars, for heaven's sakes. They don't want to ride light rail and mass transit, for the most part. So what do you have to do? You have to increase supply.

So get rid of these stupid rules that stop drilling in Anwar and offshore and build more refineries and all these things. That's what can you do, not price control. Because what happens when you have those? Gas lines.

KONDRACKE: Yes, well, it's not a question of price controls. But it is President Bush who mentioned the possibility of price gouging. And Democrats...

BARNES: Give some examples.

KONDRACKE: Well, the Democrats have been riding this. And I think it would be worthwhile having a Federal Trade Commission investigation to find out whether price gouging has been involved here, for once and for all.

Now, look, I basically believe in the supply-demand fundamental causation of this.

BARNES: Well, thank heavens for that.

KONDRACKE: The Chinese and the Indians are demanding more oil. There's been trouble in Nigeria, the possibility of a crisis with Iran. That accounts for the fact that crude is now above $70 a barrel, $75 in fact.

And then, you've got a problem with refinery capacity, or production, in the United States for gasoline, which is why it's almost $3 a barrel.

Now, the oil industry says that we're not gouging, that it's just that we haven't recovered from "Katrina" yet.

The Democrats are saying that the refiners are holding back capacity in order to drive up prices, which is why there ought to be an investigation.

But the bottom line here, as to your overall answer, is you're concentrating on oil, oil production.

BARNES: Yes..

KONDRACKE: Well, there's another answer too. I mean, there's other stuff you should be producing alternative fuels.

BARNES: Sure.

KONDRACKE: You should be investigating more efficient engines, all this kind of stuff. And Bush should have had a comprehensive energy strategy in place starting in 2001. We didn't get a bill until 2005. And only now is he saying we're addicted to oil.

BARNES: That was a (ph)...

KONDRACKE: No. He has not led on this issue the way he should have.

BARNES: Look, his bill is comprehensive. And it does subsidize a lot of these alternative fuels. But you can't get around the fact that we have all these cars in the country that run on gasoline. And we need more gas.

KONDRACKE: I know. I'm for doing...

BARNES: It's as simple as that.

KONDRACKE: My policy is do it all.

BARNES: You're not going to have solar cars.

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