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April 08, 2006

Hot Stories: Immigration & Tom DeLay

Beltway Boys

JUAN WILLIAMS, GUEST CO-HOST: Coming up on "The Beltway Boys", no deal. Immigration reform is dead for now in the Senate. We'll tell you who's to blame.

FRED BARNES, CO-HOST: Tom DeLay is history, but the GOP still has some big-time retooling to do before November.

WILLIAMS: Cynthia McKinney pulls her race card. But are all her political and legal troubles just beginning?

BARNES: And things are getting a bit tense, wouldn't you say, between Donald Rumsfeld and Condoleezza Rice. We'll explain. "The Beltway Boys" are straight ahead right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

BARNES: I'm Fred Barnes.

WILLIAMS: And I'm Juan Williams, in for Mort Kondracke. And tonight, we're "The Beltway Boys".

BARNES: Top story No. 1, Juan, falling apart, part one. And what's falling apart -- apart, obviously, is immigration reform legislation that is, if passes, which would be -- if it passes, Congress gets through it -- it would be the first immigration reform legislation in a decade, the first serious immigration reform legislation in 20 yours. So it's really important what happens.

Thursday, of course, the Senate, because the House has passed a bill, the Senate was ready to pass a bill which would have had enforcement, obviously, at the border. It would have had a guest worker program to bring in, what, 400,000 foreigners a year to work here in the United States with green cards for a spell. And it would have had a way to earn citizenship for those 11 or 12 million illegal immigrants who are already here.

That was Thursday. Friday, boom, it completely fell apart.

Now, I blame Democrats for this, because Democrats haven't yet made up their mind whether they want a bill or an issue to use against Republicans. And you know, they don't want Republicans to get credit for passing a serious, significant immigration reform bill.

They'd rather blame the Republicans for, either failing to get something through, you know, saying that just shows you these guys can't do anything or tag them with that House immigration reform bill, which is immigration -- rather, enforcement only, a bill that's very unpopular with Hispanics in the United States.

And of course, Democrats think that could drive Hispanics, who have been lean towards Republicans recently, moving in that direction, push that direction back to the Democratic Party.

So in the Senate the tactic is to say, oh, we can only have three amendments to this bill. Republicans want at least 10, and listen to Harry Reid and Bill Frist talk about it for a minute.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HARRY REID (D-NV), MINORITY LEADER: On such an national security important issue, this is no place for stonewalling or obstruction. That's where we are. We're ready, Mr. President, today to fix our broken immigration system and give Americans the real security they deserve.

SEN. BILL FRIST (R-TN), MAJORITY LEADER: The Democrat leadership has effectively stopped at a halt to that great progress that was being made yesterday morning, b not allowing amendments.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: You know what? I think there is a bill that can pass both the Senate and the House. And Charles Krauthammer, our colleague, suggested in his column on Friday, and that would be to do this, although he didn't describe it exactly this way. Pass a border security bill that really enhances security at the border, shuts off illegal immigrants as much as possible. That would be implemented immediately.

But in the same bill, you would say, OK, we will have -- two, three or four years from now, we will to implement a guest worker program and also this earned citizenship plan. We can -- by then see whether or not the border security is working better. If it's not, well, then you can vote down those things or vote down the earned citizenship and a guest worker program.

Now listen to Tom Tancredo, the biggest critic of any sort of illegal or legal immigration.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. TOM TANCREDO (R), COLORADO: I just got to keep going back to what the speaker said, and we won't put a bill on forward. They won't get a majority of House members, and right now I can just about guarantee we're not going to get a majority of House members for an amnesty to 10 million people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: Tancredo is pretty smart on this issue, but I think he's wrong about that. A bill can pass.

WILLIAMS: Well, you know what's striking to me is you want to play the Democrats. What about the split among the Republicans, Fred? What happened to that? Why do you want Democrats to go in there and rescue Republicans from what I would call their two P's: pandering and populism?

They're pandering to some populist phantom that's coming from the far right that says, "Oh, we've to stop these illegal aliens from running over our country," as if the illegal aliens were somehow damaging our economy that's been growing great guns, even with 12 million illegals here in the United States.

I think what you've got is a compromise bill, a compromise bill that everybody would agree to. And then, all of a sudden, you have Republicans running in, contrary to even what Mel Martinez, Republican from Florida, the only immigrant in the Senate, says would be an attempt to water down the compromise by attaching this amendment, that amendment and this amendment to it like a Christmas tree.

Come on, Fred. If Republicans can't get their act together in order to say, "This is a bill that we agree on as Republicans," why ask Democrats to get involved and do your dirty work? Now, I must tell you...

BARNES: Maybe for the good of the country. Is that possible?

WILLIAMS: Well -- oh, wait a minute. So Republicans don't have to do anything for the good of the country? They can just make it a political -- you want to make it out as, oh my gosh, Democrats are looking for a political issue.

I think it's the Republicans who want to say to the base, "Oh, you know what? We're tough on enforcement. We're tough on enforcement," even as your have so many factors. You have the president of the United States, desperate for a compromise. You have the Chamber of Commerce, the business community, desperate for a compromise. You have illegal immigrants and legal immigrants who are sympathetic to their cause, desperate. And the Republicans have abandoned their responsibility.

BARNES: And what happens? There was a compromise. Democrats are blocking it. Now, Democrats -- here's the thing, Juan. Democrats will get a second chance at the bite at the apple. It will go to a House and Senate conference, and a bill will come back. If they don't like it when it comes back, well, they can block it then.

But there will be no chance of any bill passing it if the Democrats block that one in the Senate. And wait a minute, Juan. Democrats are split, too, on this issue. We know that organized labor has stepped in, and they are lobbying against the guest worker program.

WILLIAMS: You're right. You're exactly right on this point. It's very interesting, because it almost pits minority communities against each other. You have elements in organized labor who say, hey, low wage workers coming into the country hurts poor, low wage workers who are black, who have been here for a long time.

One last thing: if there is a guy who's two faced on this, wouldn't you say it's Senate Majority Leader Frist, a Republican, who says he's for enforcement one moment and then for the compromise bill he next?

BARNES: He can't make up his mind either, but he's not -- but his party's not following him.

WILLIAMS: All right.

BARNES: All right. Coming up, Tom DeLay removes one of the GOP's problems heading into the fall elections, but there are other hurdles if they're to retain control of Congress. Stick around. Hot topic No. 2 is straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: My own judgment is that our party will continue to succeed because we're the party of ideas.

REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), MINORITY LEADER: This isn't about -- just about Tom DeLay, although he's the ringleader. It's about the Republicans in Congress who enabled and benefited from this corruption.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WILLIAMS: Welcome back to "The Beltway Boys." I'm Juan Williams, in for Mort Kondracke.

This week's second hot story, falling apart, part two. Fred, what we've seen this week in the aftermath of Tom DeLay's decision to resign come this summer is a real attempt by the Republican Party to -- gee, Fred, how can I say this -- chicken feathers, you know? I think they're trying to make chicken salad out of chicken feathers. Let's just say that.

BARNES: All right.

WILLIAMS: Because the first attempt here is by the Republican Party saying that Tom DeLay did something that was totally self sacrificing. He did a noble thing...

BARNES: Yes.

WILLIAMS: ... by stepping down at this time. One, to ensure that the 22nd District, his district in Texas, can be won by a Republican against a former congressman, Nick Lampson, a Democrat.

BARNES: You don't like that, do you?

WILLIAMS: Well, I don't know. I don't know if it's true. It's a 55 percent Republican district, but I'm just saying that Tom DeLay, when he looked at the numbers, saw that it was tight race. And DeLay is the incumbent, well-known, much loved if you listen to him in that district, just won the primary, the Republican primary with 60 percent of the vote. And he's saying he was in trouble. So I don't know if any other Republican is actually going to walk in there and, like, have a cake walk.

BARNES: Yes.

WILLIAMS: The second that the Republicans are saying is now he's gone the Democrats can no longer talk about the culture of corruption and use Tom DeLay as the face, the poster boy, if you will, for that charge.

You know what? I think they've got a problem, the Republicans do, on this, because what you're seeing is that Tom DeLay resigned just a week after Tony Rudy made a deal with prosecutors that might indicate that Tony Rudy is willing now to flip and start talking about other things going on in that office. You also have...

BARNES: Wait a minute, though. There was nothing that he said in his plea agreement to implicate Tom DeLay.

WILLIAMS: Not yet. Not yet. That's the thing. Not yet.

And you know, you've got to listen to what Howard Dean, the chairman of the Democratic Party, and some others are saying. It's not just that you take away Tom DeLay, and the entire problem disappears. Tom DeLay put together an effort with K Street, with the lobbyists, the business people in this town, and much of those questions, much of the relationship with Jack Abramoff I think is going to come up time and again as the prosecutors continue to go after the case.

BARNES: Sure. Well, they'll try, but I don't think they're going to get anywhere. The -- I'll admit that some of the polls look bad. I mean, we certainly have the latest Associated Press poll that shows Democrats with a 49 to 33 percent advantage on the question of who you'd rather have control of Congress. That's a pretty big gap, what, 16 points, if I do the math right.

WILLIAMS: That's right.

BARNES: And the news isn't much better for President Bush in the latest FOX poll. His job approval rating has fallen to 36 percent, a new low for him. And even our buddy, Mike Barone, who I think probably -- he and Charlie Cook probably know more about House races than anybody else, listen to what he says. He says suddenly -- well, suddenly saying this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAEL BARONE, "U.S. NEWS & WORLD REPORT": Now I think there is at least some serious chance that voting patterns will change enough, turn out will change enough, that Democrats may be able to get make the net gain of 15 seats in the House that they need for a majority.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: And of course, Mike is right about this. There is that possibility -- possibility out there. I'd like to show one other poll that is -- it shows, in the FOX poll, of course, the one we naturally like the best, 57 percent approve of the job their own congressional member is doing. So they think the other ones are terrible but theirs is fine.

Now, here's the problem for Republicans. If either that generic number -- well, what I need to add -- the generic number in Republican districts alone, where people say, would you like a Democrat of Republican, that goes plus five Republican. So if that one sinks and if the one about your own congressman sinks below 50 percent, if the plus five goes negative and the 57 percent goes below 50 percent, that could be catastrophic for Republicans.

WILLIAMS: Absolutely.

BARNES: Then you would get a wave, and I think Republicans would not only lose the House but maybe the Senate, as well.

WILLIAMS: You know, there are so few competitive district. You know, that's why you can't really have a '94, when the Republicans came in there with that landslide. There were only 30 competitive districts.

BARNES: Democrats don't need a '94.

WILLIAMS: They don't. They need those 15 seats. But I'm talking about the Senate, as well, where they need six seats. And so here's the situation where I didn't think there were enough competitive districts, but you're hearing from Mike Barone and others, maybe they do.

BARNES: Yes.

WILLIAMS: The second thing to say here...

BARNES: ... in a way (ph).

WILLIAMS: Absolutely. But the second thing that you take away Tom DeLay, who was a terrific fundraiser. I mean, he was known as the hammer around this town, because he could hold together votes on the Hill for the Republican Party. But he was a great fundraiser. He's gone. That puts more pressure on the man that you just pointed out has a historic low in terms of his ratings, President Bush, to get out there and raise the money.

BARNES: Still a good fundraiser. No question about that.

But here's what -- something else. You know, I don't know what Nancy Pelosi was talking about the Republicans benefiting from this corruption. Obviously, Duke Cunningham did. That was not -- that was just old- fashioned corruption.

She better watch out what she says, because we know there's one Democratic congressman who is at great risk of getting indicted himself. And...

WILLIAMS: That's William Jefferson of Louisiana.

BARNES: Of Louisiana. His -- one of his aides has testified against him. In any case, with Pelosi out there as the alternative to Republicans running the House, that helps Republicans. I think voters will take a second look before they vote to have Nancy Pelosi become speaker of House. And I bet you do, too.

WILLIAMS: But let me tell you something, it's a season of change. And people are not so much looking at what the Democrats -- as someone said this week, a Republican said to me this week, it's not necessarily that the Democrats have such great things to offer.

BARNES: Right.

WILLIAMS: It's that the Republicans are just knee-deep in trouble at this moment. And I might add they're not helping themselves. When you look as ethics reform coming out of the Congress, they don't even have an oversight committee, Fred. They're talking about, "We'll just disclose. We'll open the door and let sunlight in and tell people all the corrupt acts we're up to."

BARNES: Can I say one more thing about Tom DeLay? You know, it was only the press that called him the hammer. You won't believe this, but the fact is he was a very gentle persuader of members of the -- of the House Republicans to get them to vote with him, probably the best ever. He will be remembered as one great legislator who left under a cloud but was a great congressional leader.

WILLIAMS: Well, I'll tell you what, I don't know that I have that view.

But coming up, Congressman McKinney folds her race cards and apologizes for roughing up a Capitol police officer. But she's not out of the woods legally or politically. We'll talk about it right after the break.

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