2000
Results in 2004 EV's: After reapportionment, keeping
the states the same as 2000 gives Bush 278 electoral votes and
Kerry 260 electoral votes. 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win.
So, in order to win Kerry has to flip 10 Electoral Votes and hold
all of the Gore states. (Because ties are split by the House of
Representatives Bush can probably win with 269 EVs)
In a simplified
analysis, Bush has to win both FL and OH to win. Kerry simply
has to win either FL or OH. If Kerry does not win either
FL or OH, he has very little chance of becoming President.
Without one
of these two states Kerry can get to 268/269 by winning NH and
NV, but to get over 270 he will have to carry either WV or MO.
It is hard to imagine Kerry losing OH, but winning MO or WV.
Bush needs
to win both FL-27 and OH-20, but if he were to lose
one of the two he has a small chance of picking up the lost EV's
by winning some combination of either WI-10, NM-5, MN-10, IA-7
and OR-7 (and also denying Kerry pickups in NV and NH). Unlike
Kerry's second-chance scenario, Bush could conceivably lose OH
and still hold on to the Presidency by flipping WI and NM and
holding on to NV
.If
Kerry loses PA or MI he loses.
If Bush loses
any one of AZ, CO, TN or AR he loses.
