November 16: The early take on the election is it looks like Blanco timed her attack ads against Jindal perfectly. This election for weeks had been praised as a "clean" election with little to no negative advertising by both sides. However, in the last week Blanco and the Democrats blanketed the state with ads attacking Jindal hard.

In mailers and on television, Blanco criticized Jindal’s Department of Health and Hospitals record, claiming he put money before people. One prominent ad featured the former head of a state physicians’ group saying Jindal canceled programs, such as “Needy Children.” Another ad noted that Jindal took a $24,000 raise soon after he laid off 200 Department of Health and Hospitals employees.

Had Blanco run these ads earlier Jindal's campaign would have had time to rebut the attacks and go on the offensive themselves, but by timing the broad negative attack for the last week Blanco was able to time her momentum to peak perfectly, while at the same time allowing Jindal no time to react.

We were obliviously aware that Blanco had picked up some serious momentum, but we thought the final tracking numbers from Friday showing Jindal ahead by four was an indication that Jindal had stopped her momentum in time and had built a big enough lead to hold on. We were wrong.

Had this election been run three days earlier or a week later Jindal probably would have won. Again this is an early take, but it look like Blanco's campaign outstrategized the Jindal campaign and that was the difference.

RCP Final Analysis 11/15: The final tracking poll from MRI shows a stabilization for Jindal, which is very important to the young Republican's chances. Jindal's lead, which had grown to as high as nine in the MRI poll taken at the very beginning of the week, had fallen to only four on the survey taken 11/10 - 11/12, and the results for the tracking numbers for Wednesday and Thursday showed Blanco pulling to within one point, 45%-44%. Had Blanco's same momentum continued through the final tracking poll on Friday we were prepared to switch and call for a Blanco win, but that final survey of 400 voters showed Jindal back up with a four point lead.

Make no mistake about it, this is not Kentucky where Fletcher was a shoo-in on election day or even Mississippi where Barbour was 70%-80% likely to win even though the final margin of victory would be close. This election is a true toss up and Jindal's ethnicity provides a significant wild card that is almost impossible to calibrate. There are other factors that provide a higher degree of uncertainty than usual: today is the start of hunting season and #3 ranked LSU plays a huge football game on the road at Alabama. These are small factors that probably hurt Jindal slightly though it is difficult to know exactly how much. The biggest wild card, of course, is that we're talking about Louisiana.

We said in our initial analysis if Jindal could maintain a 2 point lead in our RCP poll average he should be able to hold on and pull out the win. Our final poll average today comes in at 45.0% - 42.8%, a 2.2 point lead for Jindal, which should be just enough to get him to the finish line ahead of Blanco. Of the four Governor's races this year this is the only one that is a true toss up on election day, but Jindal looks poised to make history and immediately become a national star in the Republican Party. Jindal 51% - Blanco 49%.

November 14: The latest tracking poll from MRI shows a significant closing of the gap for Blanco from down over nine points to only four points with a day left. Some of the last minute attack ads accusing Jindal of slashing health-care while he was secretary for Department of Health and Hospitals may be leading to Jindal's drop from 49% to 46%. But it also appears that Blanco has benefited from the final debate, where her answer to a question on the "defining moment" in her life may be moving voters:

"The most defining moment in my life came, when I lost a child. Those are the moments when you have to really, really know that you have faith and faith can bring you where you have to go....That's what makes me what I am today, knowing that one of the worst things that could happen to a person happened to me, and we were able to protect our family, and the rest of my children are stronger because of it,"

WAFB anchorman George Sells, one of the debate panelists said "in the studio, it was a very dramatic moment." While Blanco appears to have the last minute momentum she is still under 45% and could well have fallen too far behind to catch Jindal. The African-American vote will be a large factor in determining the final winner, as is usual, and Jindal looks poised to get almost 15%, which is close to double the normal proportion that goes to Republicans in Louisiana.

In an interview yesterday with the Washington Post Douglas Brinkley, director of the Eisenhower Center for American Studies at the University of New Orleans suggested:

I think some old boy state's rights anti-black types are switching over to Blanco because they don't want to see an Indian-American as governor.

This remains the wild card or hidden factor in the election, and Blanco would be hard pressed to pull out a victory without these votes. But because these voters are traditionally Republican voters, and given the ninth-inning tightening toward Blanco, this could very well be the difference in a Democratic win.

However, at the end of the day, we suspect this type of voting will be small, and will be offset by crossover votes from blacks and non-traditional Republican voters. Several days ago Jindal was poised for a 54% - 46% type of win, it now looks like this race is going right down to the wire. Jindal holds on, barely, 51% - 49%.

November 12: Having won California, Kentucky and Mississippi, Republicans are poised to go 4 for 4 this Saturday if 32 year-old Bobby Jindal can defeat Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco. Piyush "Bobby" Jindal led the 17-candidate open primary on Oct 4, capturing 33% of the vote compared to second place Blanco's 18%. (Like much in Louisiana, their elections are different from the rest of the country, all the candidates run in a single election or primary and if no one captures over 50% of the vote the two top vote winners advance to a head-to-head runoff. This is what's taking place this Saturday, Nov. 15.)

The first set of polls following the Oct 4th primary showed Blanco with a 4-7 point lead on average, but since the third week in October Jindal has moved out to a small, yet solid lead in most polls. Of particular concern for Blanco is her inability to poll over 45% in any survey since mid-October, while Jindal has received 48%-49% in five different polls over the same period.

Jindal's extremely young age and his Indian ancestry have contributed to a higher than normal level of uncertainty in this race, as there were questions whether a 32-year old son of immigrants from India could win in Louisiana. In what may be a reflection of how far the South and the country have moved with regard to race, it appears that Jindal's Indian ancestry is having little effect in this contest. Of course, polls and votes can be two different things.

Like all Democrats in the South, Blanco is going to need massive support from the African-American community to win. However, in a stunning move the black mayor of New Orleans has endorsed Jindal and it appears to be helping him draw more support from the African-American community than is typical for Republicans.

While Blanco does have the support of the very well liked Senator Breaux, it is more than countered by the enthusiastic endorsement of Jindal by popular Gov. Mike Foster.

Last December, Senator Mary Landrieu was able to win 52% - 48%, because she got that huge African-American vote and a very respectable percent of the the white vote.

In that race Landrieu was the more likable and better candidate. In this year's race, Jindal seems to the better and more attractive candidate. "Jindal is being perceived as a progressive, revolutionary Republican figure in the state," says Douglas Brinkley, director of the Eisenhower Center for American Studies at the University of New Orleans.

Landrieu held a 1.5 point lead in our final poll average last year and she went on to a four point win. Jindal currently holds a 4.2 point lead in our latest average and if that can stay over 2% he should be able to pull out the win on Saturday.

We think Jindal will win almost 15% of the black vote and will hold on to enough of the traditional Republican vote to squeeze out a victory and make history.