2002
Key House Races
POLLS
IN BOLD
Alabama
AL-3:
Attack of the Clones: Similar Candidates Duking it Out (Tuscaloosa
News 11/02)
AL-3:
Alabama House Seat Crucial for Control of Congress (Auburn Plainsman
10/24)
AL-3:
Rogers, Turnham Test Theory That All Politics is Local (Associated
Press 10/21)
AL-3:
Rogers Outraises Turnham in Money Duel (Sarasota Herald-Tribune/AP
10/16)
AL-3:
Social Security Issue Has Rogers on the Run (Mobile Register 10/7)
AL-3:
Congressional Election Could Swing Control (Birmingham News, 9/30)
AL-3:
Rogers (R) 44%, Turnham (D) 32% (Mike Rogers for Congress 9/19)
GOP+12
Arizona
AZ-1: Renzi (R) 46%, Cordova (D) 34% (Public
Opinion Strat (R) 10/22-23) GOP +12
AZ-1:
Renzi (R) 48%, Cordova (D) 36% (Arizona Daily Sun 10/22)
GOP +12
AZ-1:
Social inSecurity in House Race (Arizona Daily Sun 10/20)
AZ-1:
Renzi's Campaign Manager Resigns After DUI Arrest (The Lumberjack
10/19)
AZ-1:
Sparks Fly in Race for 1st District Seat (Casa Grande Dispatch 10/15)
AZ-1:
Congressional Candidate Glosses Over Resume (Arizona Republic 10/9)
California
CA-18:
Battle for Condit's Deat One of Nation's Hottest (Oakland Tribune
10/21)
CA-18:
Condits Lash Out at Cardoza (Modesto Bee 10/17)
CA-18:
Will Dems Retain Toehold in GOP-leaning Central Valley? (Sacramento
Bee, 10/14)
CA-18:
Montieth (R) 42%, Cardoza (D) 36% (Merced Sun-Star 10/7)
GOP+6
Colorado
CO:-4:
Longtime GOPers Back Matsunaka (Denver Post 10/24)
CO-4:
Musgrave (R) 48%, Matsunaka (D) 31% (Ciruli Associates 10/18)
GOP +17
CO-4:
Musgrave Rips Matsunaka on Taxes (Denver Post 10/9)
CO-7:
Sharp Contrast in 7th (Denver Post 10/24)
CO-7:
Gun Ad Hits Beauprez (Rocky Mountain News 10/29)
CO-7:
Feeley (D) 38%, Beauprez (R) 40% (Denver Post 10/18) GOP
+2
CO-7:
A Tough but Civilized House Fight in Colorado (Reuters 10/15)
CO-7:
Feeley (D) 39%, Beauprez (R) 39% (Denver Post 10/11) TIE
House
Races Join Millionaire's Club (Denver Post 10/16)
Connecticut
CT-2:
Simmons (R) 45%, Courtney (D) 33% (UConn 10/24-10/30) GOP +12
CT-2:
Norwich is Site of Latest 2nd District Debate (Norwich Bulletin
10/24)
CT-2:
Power Visitors Indicate 2nd District Race is Tight (Norwich Bulletin
10/22)
CT-2:
Prescription Drug Plans Big Issue in 2nd District (Stamford Advocate
10/21)
CT-2:
Ads Heat Up in 2nd District Race (Hartford Courant 10/19)
CT-2:
Clinton Rolls In, Fires Up Courtney Campaign (Hartford Courant 10/15)
CT-2:
Simmons (R) 53%, Courtney (D) 34% (New Haven Register, 10/13)
GOP +19
CT-2:
Simmons (R) 41%, Courtney (D) 23% (Norwich Bulletin 9/25) GOP+18
CT-5:
Johnson (R) 50%, Maloney (D) 41% (Research 2000 10/29-31) GOP
+9
CT-5:
Johnson (R) 56%, Maloney (D) 36% (UConn 10/24-31) GOP +17
CT-5:
Maloney And Johnson Come Out Fighting in Debate (Hartford Courant
10/21)
CT-5: 5th District Race Down To Wire (Hartford Courant 10/20)
CT-5:
Johnson (R) 56%, Maloney (D) 38% (Hartford Courant 10/17) GOP+18
CT-5:
Johnson Out Front In Fund-Raising (Hartford Courant 10/16)
CT-5:
Johnson (R) 45%, Maloney (D) 38% (New Haven Register 10/13)
GOP+7
CT-5:
Johnson (R) 50%, Maloney (D) 34% (Hartford Courant 10/9) GOP+16
CT-5: Johnson (R) 42%, Maloney (D) 42% (GQR
(D) 10/6-7) TIE
Florida
Money
vs. Veterans in Central Florida House Races (Palm Beach Post 10/24)
FL-5:
New District Heats Up Race for Congress (Orlando Sentinel 10/21)
FL-5:
Candidate's Husband Steals Signs, Causes Flap (Miami Herald 10/12)
FL-5:
In Backstretch, U.S. House Race Tightens (St. Petersburg Times 10/10)
FL-5:
Democrat Seat in Peril (Washington Post/CQ 10/1)
FL-7:
Mica (R) 51%, Hogan (D) 35% (Orlando Sentinel 10/14) GOP+16
FL-8:
Keller (R)* 57%, Diaz (D) 28% (Orlando Sentinel 10/15)
GOP +29
FL-22:
Shaw (R)* 56%, Roberts (D) 30% (American Viewpoint (R) 10/15-16)
GOP +26
FL-24:
Feeney (R) 51%, Jacobs (D) 32% (Orlando Sentinel 10/7) GOP+19
FL-25:
Democrat Running for House Wants to Alter Cuba Policy (Miami Herald
10/4)
Georgia
Republicans
Fight to Overcome Underdog Image (Washington Post/CQ 10/9)
G.O.P.
Puts Up Surprising Fight in Districts Drawn by Democrats (NY Times
10/4)
GA-3:
Marshall (D) 41%, Clay (R) 40% (Public Opinion Strat 10/21-22)
DEM+1
GA-3: Marshall (D) 45%, Clay (R) 38% (Macon Telegraph 10/17)
DEM+7
GA-3:
Marshall (D) 50%, Clay (R) 33% (Macon Telegraph 10/17)
DEM+17
GA-3:
Clay, Marshall Agree on Iraq, Part Ways on Social Security (Access
North Ga. 10/14)
GA-11:
Kahn vs. Gingrey Debate Gets Fiery (Atlanta JC 10/21)
GA-11:
Kahn (D) 43%, Gingrey (R) 39% (The Daily Tribune News 9/23)
DEM+4
GA-12:
Georgia's Walker Is No Walkover in House Race (Washington Post/CQ
10/31)
GA-12:
Election is More Than Test of 2 Men (Augusta Chronicle 10/27)
GA-12: Burns (R) 48%, Walker (D) 33% (Tarrance
Group (R) 10/22-23) GOP +15
Illinois
IL-19: Shimkus (R) 52%, Phelps (D) 36% (NRCC
10/22-23) GOP +16
IL-19:
Shimkus/Phelps Race Heating Up (The Edwardsville Intelligencer 10/24)
IL-19:
Shimkus (R) 51%, Phelps (D) 38% (NRCC 10/11) GOP+13
IL-19: Candidates Take Off the Gloves (Evansville Courier-Press
10/6)
IL-19:
Fire, Brimstone Fill House Race (Chicago Tribune 10/5)
Indiana
Indiana
Congressional Races May Affect Power Balance (Indianapolis Star
10/14)
IN-2:
Chocola (R) 49%, Long-Thompson (D) 46% (Research 2000 10/29-10/29)
GOP +3
IN-2:
Chocola (R) 47%, Long-Thompson (D) 35% (WNDU-TV 10/20)
GOP +12
IN-2: Long-Thompson (D) 45%, Chocola (R)
43% (Lake Snell Perry (D) 10/20) DEM+2
IN-2:
Long-Thompson (D) 47%, Chocola (R) 46% (South Bend Tribune 10/13)
DEM+1
IN-2: Long-Thompson (D) 47%, Chocola (R)
43% (South Bend Tribune 10/1) DEM+4
IN-7:
Carson (D) 43%, McVey (R) 42% (Indianapolis Star 11/1) DEM +1
IN-7: Carson (D) 46%, McVey (R) 37% (WISH-TV 10/29) DEM +9
IN-7:
Carson Gets More Help From Dems (WISH-TV 10/25)
IN-7:
Carson (D) 42%, McVey (R) 38% (Indianapolis Star 10/1) DEM+4
IN-9:
Dems Aim to Keep Hill Country (Washington Post/CQ 10/9)
Iowa
GOP
Polls Show Republicans Fighting Hard All Over Iowa (Des Moines Register
10/31)
Iowa
House Races a Model of Parity (LA Times 10/16)
IA-1:
Nussle Dialing For Dollars (Time Magazine 10/14)
IA-2:
Leach's Re-election in Jeopardy (Roll Call 10/14)
IA-2:
G.O.P. Candidate's Antiwar Vote Proves Popular (NY Times 10/10)
IA-2:
Leach Breaks With GOP, Opposes Attacking Iraq (Des Moines Register
10/4)
IA-3:
District Sees Few Real Debates - Des Moines Register (10/10)
IA-4:
Norris, Latham Debate Medicare and Iraq (Waterloo Cedar Falls Courier
10/7)
Kansas
KS-3:
Moore Ahead of Taff by 3 Points in Latest Poll (KC Star 10/29)
KS-3:
Moore, Taff Spar in Debate (KC Star 10/16)
KS-3:
Moore and Taff Unleash Bombs (Johnson
County Sun 10/11)
KS-3:
Incumbent Moore (D) Sees Himself As a Bipartisan Independent (KC
Star 9/30)
KS-4: Candidates' Paths Differ in Last Week (Wichita Eagle 10/29)
KS-4:
Tihart (R) 51%, Nolla (D) 42% (Wichita Eagle 10/22) GOP +9
KS-4:
Tiahrt (R) 52%, Nolla (D) 41% (Wichita Eagle 9/24) GOP+11
Kentucky
KY-3:
Gephardt Stumps for Conway (Louisville Courier-Jrnl 10/30)
KY-3:
Northup Fighting Off Conway (Cincinnati Post 10/29)
KY-3:
Sex and Ethics Fuel Kentucky Race (Fox News 10/28)
KY-3:
Northup (R)* 51%, Conway (D) 46% (Survey USA, 10/22-10/24)
GOP +5
KY-3:
Northup (R)* 53%, Conway (D) 45% (Survey USA, 10/15-10/17)
GOP +8
KY-3:
Congressional Race Gets National Attention (Louisville Courier-Jrnl
10/13)
KY-3: Northup (R)* 50%, Conway (D) 46% (Survey
USA, 10/4) GOP +4
KY-4:
Voter Turnout Key to 4th District (Kentucky Post 11/2)
KY-4: Lucas
(D) 51%, Davis (R) 46% (Survey USA. 10/27 - 10/29) DEM +5
KY-4:
Lucas (D) 54%, Davis (R) 43% (Survey USA. 10/13 - 10/15) DEM
+11
KY-4:
Airwaves Heat Up in Lucas/Davis Race (Kentucky Post 10/12)
Maine
ME:
Raye, Michaud Head Down to the Wire (Bangor News 11/2)
ME-2:
Raye (R) 38%, Michaud (D) 48% (Strategic Mkting Svcs 10/24-27)
DEM +10
ME-2:
Raye (R) 35.8%, Michaud (D) 36.5% (RKM Research 10/23-26) DEM
+0.7
ME-2: Profiles of Kevin
Raye (R) and Mike
Michaud (D) (Portland Press Herald 10/21)
ME-2:
Raye (R) 44%, Michaud (D) 38% (Bangor Daily News 10/14)
GOP +6
ME-2:
Raye Vies For Congressional Seat (Lewiston Sun-Journal 10/13)
Maryland
Funding
Gaps Narrow in Bids for Congress (Baltimore Sun (10/16)
MD-2:
Ruppersberger (D) 46%, Bentley (R) 38% (Baltimore Sun 10/31)
DEM +8
MD-2:
2nd District Draws Outside Attention (Baltimore Sun 10/30)
MD-2:
Maryland is Site of Key House Battleground (Washington Post 10/29)
MD-2: Ruppersberger (D) 47%, Bentley (R)
43% (Gonzales/Arscott 10/14-20) DEM +4
MD-2:
Ruppersberger Likes Being in Driver's Seat (Baltimore Sun 10/20)
MD-2:
A Civil Exchange in Bid for Congress (Baltimore Sun 10/15)
MD-2:
Bentley (R) 42%, Ruppersberger (D) 40% (Baltimore Sun, 10/2)
GOP+2
MD-8:
Morella (R) 44%, Van Hollen (D) 42% (Potomac Research 10/26-28)
GOP +2
MD-8: Morella (R) 44%, Van Hollen (D) 42% (Gonzales/Arscott 10/14-20)
GOP +2
MD-8:
Morella Cites Value of Keeping Her in GOP House (Washington Post
10/17)
MD-8:
For Morella, Independence Carries a Cost (Washington Post 10/15)
MD-8:
Morella Goes On the Attack In New Ad (Washington Post 10/11)
MD-8:
Van Hollen (D) 43%, Morella (R) 40% (Baltimore Sun, 10/2) DEM+3
Michigan
MI-10:
Miller Out Front With Cash, Airtime (Detroit Free-Press 10/29)
MI-10:
Marlinga Getting Lost in Miller's Dust (Macomb Daily News 10/20)
MI-10: Miller (R) 51%, Marlinga (D) 29%
(Macomb Daily News 10/15) GOP +22
MI-11:
Big Guns Try to Swing a Key Race (Detroit Free-Press 10/28)
MI-11:
Stark Differences Define 2 Candidates in a Close Race in MI (NY
Times 10/18)
MI-11:
Debate Centers on Iraq (Detroit News 10/10)
Minnesota
MN-2:
Senate, 2nd District Races Seen as Pivotal (St. Paul Pioneer-Press
10/18)
MN-2:
Luther Deflects Questions on Garst's Sham Bid (Minneapolis Star
9/28)
MN-6:
Tough Race Turns Off Voters (Associated Press 10/12)
MN-6:
Lots of Talk, Few Debates in Congressional Race (Minn. Public Radio
10/17)
MN-6:
GOP Questions Roberts' Campaign Fund (Minneapolis Star-Tribune 10/11)
MN-7:
Flying Candidates Prowl District for Votes (Minneapolis Star-Tribune
10/14)
Mississippi
MS-3:
Native Sons Battle it Out (Biloxi Sun-Herald 10/31)
MS-3:
AARP Endorsement Could Boost Shows (Jackson Clarion-Ledger 10/20)
MS-3:
Pickering, Shows Prepare for Election Day Face-off (Daily Mississippian
10/15)
MS-3:
Campaigns Shift Gear as Nov. 5 Nears (Starkville Daily News, 10/14)
Nevada
NV-1:
Berkley (D) 51%, McDonald (R) 38% (Las Vegas Review-Jrnl 10/25)
DEM +13
NV-1: Berkley (D) 50%, McDonald (R) 29%
(Public Opinion Strat (R) 10/21) DEM +21
NV-1: Berkley (D) 51%, McDonald (R) 30%
(Mellman Group (D) 10/21) DEM +21
NV-3:
An In Depth Look at the CD3 Race (Las Vegas Review-Jrnl 10/27)
NV-3:
Porter (R) 46%, Herrera (D) 34% (Las Vegas Review-Jrnl 10/25)
GOP +12
NV-3:
Race Between Porter and Herrera Gets Nasty (SF Chronicle 10/18)
NV-3:
Mud Flies in Nevada Race (LA Times 10/13)
New Hampshire
NH-1:
Bradley (R) 49%, Clark (D) 31% (UNH 10/23-10/29) GOP +18
NH-1:
Bradley (R) 49%, Clark (D) 41% (Becker Institute 1022-10/23)
GOP +8
NH-1:
Bradley (R) 53%, Clark (D) 39% (American Research Group 10/25)
GOP +14
NH-1:
Bradley (R) 54%, Clark (D) 35% (American Research Group, 10/18)
GOP+19
NH-1:
Bradley (R) 47%, Clark (D) 34% (University of New Hampshire, 10/11)
GOP+13
NH-2: Bass (R) 47%, Swett (D) 41% (UNH 10/23-10/29) GOP +6
NH-2:
Bass (R) 56%, Swett (D) 34% (Becker Institute 10/22-10/23)
GOP +22
NH-2: Bass (R) 54%, Swett (D) 35% (American Research Group 10/25)
GOP +19
NH-2:
Bass is No Moderate, Swett Says (Nashua Telegraph 10/24)
NH-2:
Bass (R) 54%, Swett (D) 33% (American Research Group 10/18)
GOP+21
NH-2:
Bass (R) 52%, Swett (D) 30% (University of New Hampshire 10/11)
GOP+22
New Jersey
New
Map Give Incumbents the Edge (New Jersey Star-Leger 10/27)
NJ-5:
Garrett (R) 49%, Sumers (D) 41%, (Bergen Record 10/24)
GOP +8
NJ-5:
Garrett (R) 48%, Sumers (D) 33% (Public Opinion Strat (R) 10/22)
GOP +15
NJ-5:
Garrett (R) 42%, Sumers (D) 40% (Penn,Schoen&Berland (D) 10/12-13)
GOP+2
NJ-5:
Sumers Hopes Voters Liken Her to Roukema (North Jersey News 10/20)
NJ-5:
Garrett Has Problem; Her Name is Sumers (The Daily Record 10/18)
NJ-5:
New Jersey Race to Play Key Role in House Control (Parsippany Daily
Record 10/15)
NJ-5:
Garrett, Sumers tone it down (New Jersey Herald 10/14)
New Mexico
Bush
Revs N.M. GOP Candidates (Albuquerque Tribune 10/29)
New
Mexico Has Unusually Competitive House Slate (Washington Post/CQ
10/18)
NM-1:
Wilson (R) 48%, Romero (D) 40% (Santa Fe New Mexican 11/1) GOP
+8
NM-1:
Wilson (R) 51%, Romero (D) 39% (El Paso Times, 10/14) GOP+12
NM-2:
Congressional Race Wide Open (Roll Call 10/17)
NM-2:
Pearce (R) 38%, Smith (D) 36% (El Paso Times, 10/14) GOP+2
New York
NY-1:
Grucci (R) 39%, Bishop (D) 38% (Cooper & Secrest (D) 10/14-16)
GOP +1
North Carolina
NC-8:
Hayes, Kouri Keep Attacking (Charlotte Observer 10/30)
NC-8:
Hayes Faces Another Challenge in 8th District Race (Raleigh N &O
10/27)
NC-8: Race Focuses on Hayes' Record (Charlotte Observer 10/22)
NC-8:
Rep. Hayes Leads Region in Funds Raised (Fayetteville Observer-Times
10/16)
NC-8:
Hayes (R) 48%, Kouri (D) 36% (Fayetteville Observer-Times 10/7)
GOP+12
NC-13:
Grant, Miller Compete for New House District (WRAL, 10/20)
North Dakota
ND-AL:
Bush Adviser Stumps for Clayburgh (Grand Forks Herald/AP 10/23)
Ohio
OH-3:
Congressional Race a Duel of Styles (Columbus Dispatch 10/31)
OH-3:
Carne, Turner Agree, Disagree on Best Path (Dayton Daily News 10/21)
OH-3:
Democrat
Carne Outspent 2-1 by Turner in 3rd District (Associated Press 10/16)
GOP
Looking to Pick Up 2 House Seats In Ohio (Associated Press 10/15)
Oklahoma
OK-4:
Cole (R) 46%, Roberts (D) 39% (Cole,Hargrave,Snodgrass (R) 10/17-20)
GOP +7
OK-4: Cole (R) 46%, Roberts (D) 45% (Hamilton
Beattie (D) 10/14-16) GOP +1
Pennsylvania
PA-6:
A Congressional Race Saturated With Attacks (Philly Inquirer 10/31)
PA-13:
Words Fly in Final Days of 13th District Battle (Philly Inquirer
11/2)
PA-13:
Hoeffel (D) 43%, Brown (R) 35% (Public Opinion Strat (R) 10/31)
DEM +8
PA-15:
Gore Backs O'Brien Against Toomey (Pottstown Mercury 10/19)
PA-17:
Liberal Label Dogs Democrat in Key House Race (Penn Live 10/24)
PA-17:
Gekas-Holden Race Heats Up (Fox News 10/21)
PA-17:
The Gekas-Holden Showdown (Roll Call 10/17)
PA-17:
Gekas-Holden Race Tests GOP's Remap Art (Washington Post/CQ 10/16)
PA-17:
Pennsylvania Incumbents Clash in Key House Race (Reuters 10/14)
PA-17:
Gekas, Holden Throw Verbal Punches at Forum (Lebanon Patriot-News
10/8)
PA-17:
Holden (D) 48%, Gekas (R) 38% (Roll Call 9/26) DEM+10
South Dakota
SD-AL:
Janklow (R) 47%, Herseth (D) 42% (KELO-TV 10/30) GOP
+5
SD-AL:
A South Dakota Race Is More Opposites Than Issues (New York Times
10/20)
SD-AL:
Herseth Shows Heft Against Janklow in S.D. House Race (Wash Post
10/18)
SD-AL:
Herseth (D) 45%, Janklow (R) 41% (KELO-TV 10/11) DEM+4
SD-AL:
Candidates Push Pet Issues (Argus Leader 10/9)
SD-AL:
Janklow (R) 47%, Herseth (D) 40% (Argus Leader 9/28) GOP+7
Tennessee
Stakes
High for 4th, 5th District Congressional Seats (Knoxville
News-Sentinel 10/20)
TN-4:
Tight 4th Race Gets National Notice (Tennessean 10/31)
TN-4:
Davis, Bowling Even in Funds Race (Knoxville News-Sentinel/AP 10/17)
TN-4:
Davis Not Anti-gun or Anti-God (Knoxville News-Sentinel 10/16)
TN-4:
Democrats See 4th District as Chance to Retake House (Nashville
Tennessean 9/29)
Texas
House
Races Marked by Angst, High Energy (Houston Chronicle 10/27)
TX-5: Hensarling (R) 47%, Chapman (D) 36%
(Baselice&Assoc(R),10/20-21) GOP +11
TX-5:
Hensarling Leads Chapman in Money Race (Dallas Monring News 10/16)
TX-5:
Congressional Candidate Faces Fine (Dallas Morning News 10/4)
TX-11:
Edwards (D) 50%, Farley (R) 42% (Roll Call 10/7) DEM+8
TX-25:
House Hopefuls Seeing Red Over Acidic TV Ads (Houston Chronicle
11/1)
TX-25: Reiser (R) 41%, Bell (D) 39% (Arthur Finkelstein & Assocs
(R) 10/22) GOP +2
Utah
UT-2:
GOP Hopes to Swallow Matheson With Ad Push (Salt Lake Tribune 10/30)
UT-2:
National Groups Pouring Big Bucks Into Utah Race (Deseret News 10/29)
Washington
WA-2:
Economy, Security Keys in 2nd District (Everett Herald 10/24)
WA-2: Smith (R) 42%, Larsen (D) 39% (American
Viewpoint (R) 10/21-10/22) GOP +3
WA-2:
Larsen (D) Crushing Smith (R) in Fundraising Race (Seattle Times
10/16)
West Virginia
WV-2:
Bush Visits, Calls Capito a "Breath of Fresh Air" (Charleston
Daily Mail 11/1)
WV-2:
Capito (R) 50%, Humphreys (D) 32% (WCHS-TV 10/30) GOP +18
WV-2:
Capito (R) 53%, Humphreys (D) 32% (WV MetroNews 10/28) GOP +21
WV-2:
Congressional Race at Center of Storm (Charleston Daily Mail 10/18)
WV-2:
Capito-Humphreys Race Running Up High Price Tag (Fox News, 10/14)
DEM
PICKUP or GOP LOSS (GA-11, MD-8, PA-17, SD-AL)
GOP PICKUP or DEM LOSS (CA-18, CT-5, FL-24, IL-19)
NO NET CHANGE, GOP RETAINS CONTROL OF THE HOUSE
Projections above
based solely on latest polls listed below.
DEM
PICKUP or GOP LOSS (GA-3, GA-11, IL-19, SD-AL)
GOP PICKUP or DEM LOSS (AZ-1, CO-7, FL-24, FL-25, MI-10, MI-11,
MN-2, MS-3, NV-3)
NO NET CHANGE, GOP RETAINS CONTROL OF THE HOUSE
Projections above
based solely on latest polls listed below.
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