Although
political observers are focused on this year’s elections,
the fight for the 2008 Democratic and Republican presidential
nominations and the fortunes of Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and
John McCain, as well as that of former New York City Mayor Rudy
Giuliani, are never far from their minds.
Those three
outsized personalities are dominating early discussions of the
first presidential campaign since 1928 to not feature a sitting
president or vice president. (Harry Truman’s vice president,
Alban Barkley, made an unsuccessful—and little- remembered-bid
for the Democratic presidential nomination in 1952.)
According
to a new Cook Political Report/ RT Strategies poll, Clinton
is the most popular of three well-known Democrats expected to
seek the 2008 nomination. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaners,
she drew 44 percent support. Former Sen. John Edwards, the party’s
2004 vice presidential nominee, received 16 percent, while Sen.
John Kerry, the 2004 standard- bearer, drew 14 percent.
The poll
of 1,000 adults nationwide was conducted February 23-26 and has
a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent.
Clinton does
best among women and African-Americans, getting 48 percent of
the female vote, compared with 38 percent of the male vote. She
received a whopping 65 percent of black support, which could make
her a big favorite in Southern primaries.
The curiosity
surrounding the New York senator’s candidacy seems limitless,
among friends and foes alike. In the Cook/RT survey, among Democrats
and independents who lean Democratic, 47 percent thought that
Clinton would be as electable as any other Democratic nominee.
But 46 percent were concerned that she couldn’t win a general
election.
Thom Riehle,
the Democratic partner in RT Strategies, said, “Democrats
are hungry for a victory.… Clinton’s success in winning
the nomination will depend on reassuring Democratic primary voters,
especially hard-core liberals, that her candidacy will not condemn
them to four more long years in the wilderness.”
In the poll’s
GOP trial heat, McCain and Giuliani tied with 30 percent, followed
by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 11 percent.
While Clinton
must deal with electability questions, Giuliani has to figure
out how to survive a GOP nomination process dominated by cultural
conservatives. For Giuliani, the task will be quite a change from
overwhelmingly Democratic New York City, where a Republican seeking
office needs to take liberal social and cultural positions.
Republicans
and Republican-leaning independents were read two descriptions
of Giuliani: “He really cleaned up New York City as mayor
and made it a safer place to live or visit, and then showed real
courage as a leader after the attack on the World Trade Center,”
and “His views on some issues—because he is pro choice
on abortion, and supports gun control and gay rights—make
it hard … to support him for president.”
Based on
those statements, 50 percent said they would nominate Giuliani,
while 43 percent would not. Among self-described conservatives,
who tend to dominate GOP primaries and caucuses, 46 percent would
choose Giuliani, while 48 percent would not. Clearly, how to view
the ex-mayor is a very divisive question within the GOP.
Lance Tarrance,
the Republican partner in RT Strategies, says, “On the strength
of name recognition, Giuliani runs right alongside McCain, but
when you put his foot to the fire on issues like abortion, gun
control, and gay rights, a significant number of Republicans can’t
support him.” Although many conservatives have serious reservations
about McCain’s ideology and party loyalty, the Arizona senator’s
problems pale in comparison with those Giuliani would face.
In a general
election trial heat, McCain led Clinton by 10 points, 47 percent
to 37 percent. He won 84 percent of Republicans, but she carried
only 69 percent of Democrats.
No matter
what turns this year’s contests take, count on Clinton,
McCain, and perhaps Giuliani to remain obsessions of the political
world.
Charlie
Cook is a weekly columnist for National
Journal magazine and the founder and publisher of the Cook
Political Report.
