March 25, 2002
Can Illinois GOP Regroup in
Time?
By
Tom Bevan
Its been decades since Republicans have had a real gubernatorial
primary in Illinois. As you might imagine, the result was not
pretty. After an incredibly contentious (and at times bizarre)
campaign, Republican voters went to the polls last Tuesday and
selected Illinois Attorney General Jim Ryan as its nominee.
The following day, Illinois GOP Chairman Lee Daniels organized
a "unity" luncheon for all three Republican candidates
and their supporters. The two losing candidates refused to attend.
When asked about one of the candidate's absence at the event,
the current Governor George Ryan responded, "we just don't
need the guy. I'm glad he's not coming."
Such backbiting is commonplace in the Illinois GOP these days.
It began last fall when Governor Ryan, dogged by a bribery scandal
dating back to his days as Secretary of State, declined to seek
another term. By then, however, Patrick O'Malley had already tapped
into the discontent among Illinois conservatives with the Governor's
moderate positions on social issues and his ardent support of
large new spending programs. Even Ryan's Lieutenant Governor,
Corrine Wood, took to the airwaves during her campaign with ads
criticizing her patron.
On the surface, Illinois looks to be as evenly divided as many
other states. The State Legislature and U.S. Congressional delegations
are split exactly down the middle. But looking deeper, there is
a good deal of evidence that shows Illinois is moving away from
Republicans.
It used to be that GOP candidates could offset huge vote deficits
in the city of Chicago with gains downstate. Now, however, the
suburbs are the key battleground - representing more than 40%
of the total state vote. And while GOP issues like tax cuts resonate
in these areas, more and more suburban voters are responding to
liberal social issues such as abortion rights and gun control.
Clinton capitalized on this trend and carried Illinois in 1992
by 15 points and again in 1996 by 17 points. Results from the
2000 Presidential race are even more telling. Gore eked out victories
in only four Midwestern states: Michigan (4 points), Iowa (1 point),
Minnesota (2 points) and Wisconsin (just over 5,000 votes). In
Illinois, however, Gore won going away by 12 points.
Take a closer look at Illinois' US Senators. Dick Durbin, who
won his seat in 1996, has consistently been ranked by vote tracking
groups as one of the most liberal members of the United States
Senate - ahead of ultra-left wingers like Barbara Boxer from California
and Ted Kennedy from Massachusetts. Even with such a brazenly
liberal voting record, Durbin is a virtual shoo-in for reelection
this year. And in 1998, it took more than $17 million dollars
for Peter Fitzgerald to squeeze out a 3 point victory over a scandal-plagued
Carol Mosley-Braun who spent only $7 million.
In many ways, Illinois is looking more and more like California:
a complex political landscape of rural conservatism, urban liberalism
and suburban swing-voting moderates. But unlike the recent GOP
primary in California, where voters spurned a moderate, "more
electable" candidate in favor of a conservative neophyte,
Illinois Republicans split their votes among conservative O'Malley
(28%), pro-choice Wood (27%), and handed a plurality to the somewhat
squishy, middle-of-the-road Ryan (45%).
To win, Ryan must court the O'Malley social conservatives and
still appeal to suburban moderates. It's going to be uphill all
the way. The Democrat, Rod Blagojevich, is a young, energetic
three-term Congressman who made a strong downstate showing in
the Democratic primary and will get every last vote in Cook County
squeezed out for him by Mayor Daley's machine. If Republicans
are unable to unify the party behind its new standard bearer,
Democrats may very well recapture the Illinois Governor's office
for the first time since 1976.
Tom
Bevan writes for RealClearPolitics.
