February 9, 2006
Swann v. Rendell: A Sporting Event
By G. Terry Madonna and Michael L. Young
A year or
so ago, the fondest hope of many in Pennsylvania--if biggest nightmare
of a few --was that the Eagles and Steelers would be meeting in
the Super Bowl. Well it's finally happening -except the grand
contest won't be played for the Lombardi Trophy, but instead for
the highest office in Pennsylvania. And the final pairing in the
big one won't be Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia but Team Swann vs.
Team Rendell. Pennsylvania's gubernatorial super bowl is about
to begin.
It was former
Lt. Governor and now former gubernatorial candidate Bill Scranton
who made it all possible. Scranton's withdrawal from the Republican
nomination race for governor has set the table for a historic
Pennsylvania governor's race- historic because Lynn Swann is now
likely to become the first African American to win a gubernatorial
nomination for governor in the state; historic because the race
now features two candidates with national visibility and stature;
and historic because never have two candidates been so identified
as clearly with the state's two major cities in opposite ends
of the state-- and not so incidentally with the two major football
sports franchises in Pennsylvania.
Scranton's
sudden withdrawal says much about the race and provides important
clues to understanding the contest between Swann and Rendell to
follow. Originally most analysts dismissed the Swann candidacy
as a fool's errand. How could an ex football player--regardless
of his celebrity--with no political experience and little knowledge
of state government possibly win the nomination of a major party
for governor--much less the nomination in the button-down, top-down
Republican party. And how could a candidate who refused to debate,
much to the chagrin of his opponents as well as the media, have
any hope of persevering?
But Swann
has persevered--and quite comfortably as it turns out.
He had already
locked up the crucial GOP State Committee endorsement vote before
Scranton's capitulation. In the critical court of public opinion,
Swann, the former sports broadcaster and political neophyte, was
leading Scranton, a Pennsylvania name brand if there ever was
one. He was also increasing the lead in the early polls, and was
within spitting distance of the state's reigning political superstar
Ed Rendell. Not bad for a rookie.
Clearly there
are some important lessons to be gleaned here. For the better
part of a year, the Scranton campaign let Swann run unchallenged.
Swann toured the state, relating to growing audiences his resonating
personal narrative--up from humble roots to USC on a football
scholarship, then to the Steelers for a stellar pro career, playing
for an all world team beloved by millions. It's not quite Horatio
Alger, but it is a compelling story.
Meanwhile,
the Scranton campaign, focused on Rendell and beset with its own
internal problems, violated an iron axiom of electoral politics:
never underestimate an opponent. As a consequence, Scranton never
dealt with the challenge of campaigning against star power and
a genuine celebrity.
Ironically
Scranton failed in his quest for governor at precisely the moment
he was most prepared to become governor. A former Lt Governor
and scion of a famous Pennsylvania family, he had blossomed into
a formidable campaigner. In every sense, he was a much better
candidate than during his initial foray into politics as Lt. Governor
more than 20 years ago. But ultimately the Republican Party establishment
congealed behind Swann, leaving Scranton with the unenviable prospect
of running against the Republican organization. It was an ordeal
he wisely refused.
A second
lesson from the Swann emergence calls attention to the growing
intervention of national events into local politics. No Pennsylvania
candidate for governor in modern times announced his candidacy
and had it become a national story, and certainly no candidate
ever had the media exposure of a Super Bowl to fuel a candidacy.
Who would have predicted last year that the Steelers would win
their conference, win the Super Bowl, and that Swann would be
the beneficiary of a tidal wave of national publicity in the wake
of Steeler mania? We still are some distance from a true "nationalization"
of state politics. But with both congressional and statewide politicians
increasingly raising campaign cash out of state, and amid growing
national interest in state candidates, Pennsylvania will probably
see more national influences in state politics in the future.
And what
should we make of the race to come? Who would have imagined that
an all pro Hall of Fame Pittsburgh wide receiver and ABC sports
announcer would run for governor against a Philadelphia Eagles
commentator who just happens to be the governor of Pennsylvania?
Swann himself has suggested that the race is about a sports announcer
who wants to be governor and a governor who wants to be a sports
announcer. Well not quite. But the metaphors are sprouting faster
than potholes after a Pennsylvania winter.
It's East
vs. West. The Eagles vs. Steelers. Best from the West vs. Beast
of the East--you see the point here. We're talking a clash of
titans, and it's going to be a wild ride.
And make
no mistake; Ed Rendell is a tough and seasoned politician and
not arguably a great campaigner, who will exploit Swann's lack
of knowledge and experience. Nor is Rendell's money edge to be
discounted. Currently, he is leading Swann's fundraising by about
12 to 1. Moreover, state Republicans may yet regret not testing
Swann in a primary. Other than Dick Thornburgh who had a substantial
public record as a US prosecutor, no novice candidate in modern
history has won major office without at least one prior race under
the belt. Swann has made a career by breaking records, but this
particular one may be his greatest challenge.
Meanwhile
Rendell himself is not without a care or two. His polling strength
is not impressive for an incumbent running for re election. Some
of his campaign promises remain unfulfilled. And he is running
in a year that looks ominous for incumbents.
But all of
this gets to play out over the next nine months. Meanwhile, pull
up a seat and get comfortable. The big event is underway.
Dr.
G. Terry Madonna is Professor of Public Affairs at Franklin and
Marshall College and Dr. Michael Young is Managing Partner of
Michael Young Strategic Research.
