A president’s
popularity, as measured by job-approval ratings, plays an undeniably
critical role in determining his Capitol Hill clout and his party’s
electoral prospects. So whatever influences that popularity is
important.
Countless
factors can cause fluctuations in a president’s approval
ratings, including interest rates, inflation, unemployment, the
general health of the economy, whether the country is at war,
whether civil or social unrest is brewing, and whether the White
House and Congress are addressing what the public considers the
nation’s most pressing problems.
Energy prices
deserve more attention as a factor in influencing presidential
popularity than they usually get. We are, as President Bush has
pointed out, “addicted to oil.” The financial well-being
of many American families is seriously affected by swings in the
price of oil (in the form of gasoline or homeheating oil); natural
gas, which heats more than 55 percent of American homes; and electricity,
much of which is generated from oil or natural gas.
Because U.S.
workers’ real wages have not kept pace with inflation, surges
in energy prices hit American wallets especially hard these days.
Even though broad economic indices suggest the nation is prospering,
high energy prices have helped to drive down—and keep low—the
percentage of Americans who say the country is headed in the “right
direction.”
Four years
ago, a barrel of West Texas intermediate crude oil traded for
$18. On August 30, that benchmark hit $69.91. This Wednesday,
it closed at $57.65. Our nation’s gradual shift from manufacturing
toward a service-sector economy has lessened the impact of energy
prices a bit, but those prices continue to play a very important
role in the finances of working-class and middle- class families.
To gauge
what role energy prices play in Bush’s popularity, Tom Gallagher
and his team of economists and analysts at the ISI Group, a firm
that advises Wall Street and money managers on economics, public
policy, and politics, looked at the president’s Gallup Poll
job-approval ratings in relation to shifts in the monthly wholesale
price of unleaded gasoline. When gasoline prices went down, they
found, Bush’s approval rating tended to go up, and vice
versa. Gallagher’s group found a strong correlation—0.73,
which to statisticians suggests that roughly half of the fluctuation
in Bush’s approval rating can be accounted for by changes
in gasoline prices.
This doesn’t
mean, of course, that gasoline price increases necessarily caused
the president’s jobapproval numbers to fall. Indeed, in
some cases, the forces that boosted gas prices also increased
voters’ dissatisfaction with the president’s performance.
Energy prices
have been particularly volatile in recent years, partly because
of the war in Iraq, worries about a potential confrontation between
Iran and the West over nuclear weapons production, and political
instability in Venezuela and Nigeria. The status of Gulf Coast
re- fineries has also affected the price at the pump. Hurricanes
Katrina and Rita damaged some refineries. Another re- finery,
one of the most important, in Texas City, Texas, was out of commission
for months after a 2005 explosion. On the plus side, an extraordinarily
mild January helped reduce demand for oil.
So, on top
of all the other variables that could affect Bush’s popularity
and that of the GOP as a whole between now and the midterm elections,
don’t underestimate the potential impact of changes in the
cost of energy, particularly the price of gasoline. At one point
last month, energy analysts were predicting that gasoline prices
could rise another 20 cents to 30 cents a gallon by summer. In
recent weeks, the price per gallon has actually dropped a few
cents.
Whichever
way the price of gasoline goes, it’s worth keeping an eye
on if you want to know the direction of Bush’s political
fortunes.
Charlie
Cook is a weekly columnist for National
Journal magazine and the founder and publisher of the Cook
Political Report.
