February 17, 2006
Better
Watch a District!
Lest
parties pay the price for snoozing in sleeper races come November
By David
Wasserman and Larry J. Sabato
With upside-down
congressional approval ratings showing few signs of rising from
the depths anytime soon, 2006 promises to be one of the more volatile
(and dare we say, anti-incumbent?) House election cycles in recent
memory. So looking ahead to November, how best might Democrats
and Republicans prepare to face this specter? For starters, we
suggest each side begin by taking a page out of Comedy Central
notable Stephen Colbert's playbook: take good, hard, looks at
all kinds of House districts right now.
The constant
possibility of new theaters of battle being opened by scandal,
retirement, or other factors certainly means that parties "better
know their districts." But before party insiders start canceling
their Cook Political Report subscriptions in favor of
tuning in to the Colbert Report, we would caution that predicting
2006 House race volatility beyond that of recent cycles doesn't
amount to saying very much. Since 1994--and especially since 2000--federal
election years have experienced both low levels of competition
and notoriously few instances of upsets by challengers.
Still, each
federal election year we usually see some surprising outcomes
on election night in districts that had eluded pundits' pre-November
radar screens. Whether it's simply an unexpected close call for
a veteran incumbent, such as GOP Connecticut Rep. Nancy Johnson's
50 to 49 percent squeaker over Democratic newcomer Charlotte Koskoff
in 1996, or a David vs. Goliath-style toppling of an incumbent,
such as Democratic physicist Rush Holt's 1998 stunning upset of
GOP New Jersey Rep. Mike Pappas, observers always tend to miss
a couple "sleeper" races.
Last
week, we rolled out our updated list of the top "Dirty
Thirty" races we consider extremely likely to experience
strong inter-party competition in November. So then where might
these "sleeper" districts be located in 2006? At this
point, we've nominated twenty districts to keep a close watch
on. And while we're willing to bet that several of these races
will end up in the "Dirty Thirty" before all is said
and done, it is just as likely that a good number of these races
won't end up being very competitive at all. By the same token,
we expect that a few races not even listed in our twenty-member
"Watch List" will find their way into our picture before
the fall.
In many respects,
our list of the 31st through 50th most competitive seats is just
as remarkable for the races it leaves out as it is for the races
it includes. The Crystal Ball is going out on a limb by predicting
that in a Democratic-leaning 2006, several seats that seem to
host perennially close matchups (especially very "red"
Democrat-held districts such as Utah-2, Kansas-3, and South Dakota-AL)
might actually be less competitive than several seats where pitched
battles against established incumbents have been rare occurrences
as of late (Kentucky-2, Pennsylvania-7, and Connecticut-5 come
to mind). In the end, veteran incumbents who have taken little
for granted in the off-season--as evidenced by fundraising and
time spent in their districts--are much less likely to be caught
asleep at the wheel on November 7th.
The watchword
for parties holding borderline-competitive seats? Be on the lookout!
Fratricide Watch: Incumbents Fight for Survival
You may be
surprised--not all the House action in 2006 is reserved for districts
where one party may be poised to add a seat to its totals! We're
covering these primary races now because they're happening soon,
and in many cases there exists hard-to-read potential for incumbents
to lose. In fact, at least one almost always does! Is there any
possibility an upset of an incumbent will lead to the out-of-power
party becoming competitive in any of these districts? Unlikely.
But in these types of volatile situations, alliances can shift
and almost anything can happen.
The
Top 5
California
(51) - Longtime southern San Diego County Democratic
Rep. Bob Filner may face his toughest electoral fight yet in 2006
for several reasons. First, although his district was altered
prior to the 2002 elections to include more Democrats, its Hispanic
percentage increased markedly, making him susceptible to a challenge
from a Hispanic candidate. Second, Filner has received his share
of unfavorable press attention this year on the heels of neighboring
GOP Rep. Duke Cunningham's indictment: he has been criticized
for hiring his wife as a paid fundraiser for his campaign committee.
Both of these factors promise to increase the viability of Hispanic
Assemblyman Juan Vargas, who has wasted no time in blasting the
incumbent over a variety of matters. We give an ever-so-slight
advantage to Filner at the outset, but predict this one will be
very close. Outlook: Toss-up
Michigan
(7) - Moderate freshman GOP Rep. Joe Schwarz won the
open 2004 Republican primary with merely 28 percent of the vote
in a six-candidate field to claim this seat, which is home to
the birthplace of the Republican party and is true to its roots
in general elections. The third-place finisher was conservative
State Rep. Tim Walberg, who is back for more action this year
after receiving 18 percent of the vote last time around. Walberg
was able to out-raise Schwarz for the final quarter of 2005 with
the help of the very conservative Club for Growth, but still trails
in cash on hand considerably. Schwarz, 68, is the early favorite
to weather the charge that he is a "Republican in Name Only."
Outlook: Leans Schwarz
Mississippi
(2) - One of the most intriguing party primaries of 2006
promises to take place in this Mississippi Delta-based district.
Held by former Bolton Mayor Bennie Thompson since the mid-90s,
it retains a strong black majority. Challenger Chuck Espy, brother
of former Clinton official and district Rep. Mike Espy, has sought
to tag Thompson, a resident of the Jackson area, as being out
of touch with rural Delta issues, and has appealed to white Republicans
for crossover support in the open primary. Still, Thompson dwarfs
Espy in the money chase, and begins the race with the upper hand.
Outlook: Leans Thompson
Ohio
(2) - Freshman Rep. Jean Schmidt was probably wondering
why national Republicans weren't all smiles when she claimed a
52 percent victory in the August 2nd, 2005, special election to
replace Bush appointee and former Rep. Rob Portman. The answer?
The district had voted 64 percent for Bush the year before, and
Schmidt's performance as a candidate had been underwhelming to
say the least. So far in Congress, Schmidt has made her share
of enemies, drawing fire for a comment on the House floor perceived
as unfair criticism of pro-Iraq-withdrawal Democratic Rep. John
Murtha of Pennsylvania. Now, at least one of her foes from last
year's special primary election, former Rep. Bob McEwen, is making
another run of it. If McEwen can raise money and has the anti-Schmidt
vote to himself, expect a barnburner. Outlook: Toss-up
Texas
(28) - Although Bush carried this overwhelmingly Hispanic
district narrowly, the Democratic primary here is effectively
its ticket to Congress. Freshman Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar
stunned former Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in 2004's primary,
upsetting the incumbent by a handful of votes in a DeLay-redrawn
district joining parts of Laredo with precincts in San Antonio's
Bexar County. The battle that year broke down along regional lines,
with Rodriguez sweeping his San Antonio home base handily and
Cuellar dominating in areas around Laredo's Webb County.
Although
the outcome of that race was the subject of a protracted legal
battle and is still a matter of dispute, Rodriguez is readying
for a rematch and hopes to be back in Congress after 2006. Charging
that Cuellar is a Republican in disguise, Rodriguez points to
the fact that Cuellar unapologetically endorsed Bush's presidential
campaign, voted for CAFTA, and won an unusual (for a Democrat)
endorsement from the conservative Club for Growth group. The fact
that Cuellar was prominently spotlighted embracing President Bush
during his State of the Union entrance certainly helped Rodriguez's
case, though for the voters, the end decision in this contest
will likely have more to do with geography than ideology.
In recent
weeks, Cuellar's conservatism has begun to draw fire from liberal
bloggers and groups such as Democracy for America (the carcass
of Howard Dean's 2004 campaign), who have in turn encouraged their
supporters to donate to Rodriguez. We give Cuellar, who outraised
Rodriguez 2-1 last quarter, the early advantage, but we expect
Rodriguez's latest infusion of national cash to level the playing
field somewhat. We would also caution that perennial candidate
Victor Morales could also be a major factor in the primary. Outlook:
Leans Cuellar
California
(6) - Liberal seven-term Democratic Rep. Lynn Woolsey
finds opposition this year from the political center. Moderate
Assemblyman Joe Nation, who lags behind in the money chase, has
attempted to take Woolsey to task for privately-sponsored congressional
travel and for boosting her own pay. Woolsey is likely to survive
the primary and win an eighth term. Outlook: Likely Woolsey
Rhode
Island (2) - Democratic Rep. Jim Langevin has compiled
a moderate record over the course of his five terms in Congress.
For some of his more liberal Democratic constituents, including
a few around the considerably left-of-center haven of Brown University,
Langevin's pro-life stance has been a particular point of disagreement.
Seeking to tap into this resentment, young Brown Prof. Jennifer
Lawless has been readying a primary challenge. But her nascent
campaign has not been without its flaws; several months ago, she
was criticized for accepting campaign contributions from students
whose theses she was grading. Although she returned the money
and the flap is somewhat a thing of the past, we give the edge
to Langevin. Outlook: Likely Langevin
Dr.
Sabato, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University
of Virginia, founded the Center
for Politics in 1998. David Wasserman is the Crystal Ball's
House Editor.
