January
3, 2001
W Needs a V
By Tom Bevan
With inauguration little more than two weeks away, George W.
Bush and his newly minted cabinet need to devise a thoughtful
strategy for the first six months of his administration. Though
there is ample evidence that Democrats are going skip right over
the honeymoon and begin pummeling some of Bush's cabinet appointees
as early as next week, the following six months still represent
the best - and most crucial - time for Bush to get a solid legislative
victory under his belt.
The Bush team should focus on a central component of his campaign
agenda, but something small and centrist enough to make it impossible
for Democrats to unify against. Bush is giving signals that his
first move will be in the direction of education. This is a smart
strategy: a proposal outlining federal standards for testing and
accountability should receive great public support and force Democrats
to get on board - against the wishes of the powerful teachers
lobby.
Another option would be to send up an incremental tax cut proposal
such as abolishing the "marriage penalty" or the "death
tax." This would be a positive step toward Bush's agenda
and an entree into the debate over taxation and more serious tax
cuts in the future.
What Bush cannot afford is an issue that creates a 50-50 split
in the Senate or, God forbid, some Republican defections and an
outright defeat. And don't think for a minute that Democrats aren't
salivating at the thought of lining up to deliver such a partisan
blow.
The veterans on Bush's team will no doubt recognize that Washington
is a massively risk averse place. The larger, more innovative
the program, the greater chance it has of failing. Clinton's healthcare
debacle is a perfect example of a legislative initiative so big
and so radical that it collapsed under its own weight.
Social Security is a similar issue for Bush. Some say that Bush
should make a quick and bold move to reform Social Security, arguing
that if he doesn't act now it will never happen. However, if Bush
failed to deliver on partially privatizing Social Security, the
negative momentum created by such a loss would be devastating.
Conversely, if Bush can secure a significant bipartisan victory
on education and demonstrate his leadership abilities working
with Congress, Social Security reform will have a greater chance
of succeeding when the time is right.
Most importantly, Bush needs to have a plan to aggressively control
the agenda and drive the public relations debate. One looming
problem is the showdown with John McCain over campaign finance.
Bush would be well advised to send his own campaign finance proposal
(which will include paycheck protection) up to the hill immediately.
This will allow Bush's team to get directly into negotiations
on a compromise for campaign finance reform and avoid the inevitable
front-page "Bush v. McCain" media coverage or, even
worse, Bush being forced to publicly veto McCain-Feingold.
The first six months of the year are going to tell us a lot about
George W. Bush's leadership abilities and about the willingness
of Democrats to play ball. Bush should stick to his compassionate
conservative agenda and lead off with one of the issues that put
him in the driver's seat to begin with. An education bill will
be good policy and good politics, and will give W the kind of
legislative victory he needs to kick off his administration.
Tom Bevan writes for RealClearPolitics
