The Senate
races in Hawaii and Missouri have taken interesting and potentially
important turns. Of the two, the Aloha State’s was the real
shocker. Two-term Rep. Ed Case’s January 19 announcement
that he is challenging 81-year-old Sen. Daniel Akaka in Hawaii’s
September 23 Democratic primary certainly dropped jaws among political
insiders in both Washington and Hawaii.
Now in his
second full term, Akaka is nearly invisible in the Senate. His
extremely low profile bolsters the 53- year-old Case’s argument
that although Hawaii still has the supremely influential Daniel
Inouye in the Senate, the state would be wise to have a younger
senator building seniority for the day when the 81-year-old Inouye
will no longer be around.
Of course,
Hawaii’s other House Democrat, Neil Abercrombie, 67, must
be nearly apoplectic; he has been patiently waiting in line for
the next Senate vacancy.
Obviously,
Akaka’s pitch will be that he still has things he wants
to accomplish before retiring. He is sure to hint that he deserves
better treatment and that Case should emulate Abercrombie and
wait his turn, because that’s the way it’s done in
Hawaii.
The whole
matter probably won’t affect the partisan lineup of either
chamber: Democrats are likely to win both the Senate race and
the contest for Case’s House seat.
For years,
Hawaii Republicans have managed to produce just one stellar political
figure at a time. For a while, it was then-Rep. Pat Saiki, who
unsuccessfully challenged Akaka in 1990 shortly after he was appointed
to the Senate. Now the party’s leading light is Gov. Linda
Lingle, who is expected to run for re-election this year rather
than enter the fray for Akaka’s seat. Even before Case made
his surprise announcement, Democratic strategists must have considered
that if something were to happen to one of the state’s aging
senators, a Republican governor would likely appoint a Republican
to the Senate.
The struggle
for Akaka’s seat could be well worth watching. The incumbent
will need to persuade Democratic voters that he is essential,
which might be difficult since they are already convinced that
Inouye fills that role. While Inouye can be expected to come to
Akaka’s aid, his assistance might be a bit different from
the support that Sen. Ted Stevens gave to fellow Alaska Republican
Lisa Murkowski in 2004. Keeping the relatively young Murkowski
in office could be cast as an investment in her party’s
future. That’s not an argument that can be made on Akaka’s
behalf.
The race
has not even begun to take shape, but Case’s announcement
was one of those surprises that keep this business interesting.
In Missouri,
meanwhile, a Research 2000 poll of 800 likely voters taken January
16-18 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch showed Democratic
state Auditor Claire McCaskill locked in a statistical dead heat
with first-term GOP Sen. Jim Talent. McCaskill drew 47 percent
to Talent’s 44 percent.
This contest’s
tight start comes as no surprise. McCaskill is a fixture in state
Democratic politics. She has served in the Legislature and as
Jackson County prosecutor. She is in her second term as auditor.
McCaskill
made her biggest splash in 2004, when she challenged unpopular
Gov. Bob Holden in the Democratic primary. She beat him, 52 percent
to 45 percent, but lost the general election to then-Secretary
of State Matt Blunt, 51 percent to 48 percent.
Since McCaskill
spent much of 2004 on the air and campaigning throughout the state,
voters know her well. Still, the conventional wisdom in Washington
has been that this is an uphill race for Democrats. Earlier polls—a
Democratic survey conducted last spring, and a poll using automated
interviewers whose results didn’t seem very reliable—suggested
that the race would be very close. However, the Research 2000
survey, combined with the earlier polls, suggests that the race
isn’t uphill at all.
So, the news
out of Missouri is good for Senate Democrats, and the news out
of Hawaii isn’t bad for them, except for Akaka.
Charlie
Cook is a weekly columnist for National
Journal magazine and the founder and publisher of the Cook
Political Report.
