January 21, 2006
From "The Beirut Spring" to Toppling Assad
By
Austin
Bay
Two events sparked
Lebanon's 2005 "Beirut spring," that "street revolution"
of protests and pro-democracy demonstrations which ultimately
forced Syria to end its two-decade-long military occupation of
Lebanon.
The first revolutionary
fire-starter was Iraq's historic January 2005 election. The Iraqis
trek to the polls, despite the threats of terrorists, encouraging
democrats throughout the Middle East, but particularly in Lebanon.
Murder, however,
provided the ultimate spur. Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri
was a Lebanese nationalist with the guts to challenge Syria's
vicious and corrupt Assad regime. The Valentine's Day 2005 assassination
of Hariri pushed hundreds of thousands of Lebanese into the streets.
Lebanese of all political
and religious stripes suspected the orders to kill Hariri came
from Syria. The assassination was clearly an act of terror designed
to thwart Lebanese nationalist goals and democratic aspirations
-- and continue Syrian control.
Prior to 9-11, the
assassination might have achieved those goals. There were no other
choices. New Iraq, however, has created new political and democratic
options.
Instead of cowing
the population, the assassination energized Lebanon's opposition.
Lebanese aggressiveness, backed by explicit Western support, forced
Syria to pull out. Media coverage of Lebanese protests put Syria
under intense pressure. The American Army on Syria's border, and
an Iraqi government angry at Syrian support of Iraqi terrorists,
certainly encouraged Syrian caution.
In the aftermath
of Syria's withdrawal, key questions regarding Hariri's murder
remained. The biggest ones centered on Syrian dictator Bashar
Assad. Did Assad give the orders to kill Hariri?
The United Nations
ordered an investigation of Hariri's assassination. German jurist
Detlev Mehlis pursued leads with a fierceness that surprised the
Syrian government and impressed critics who thought the U.N. investigation
would be a "feel good" gesture with little substance.
Mehlis finessed Syrian attempts to obstruct his investigation
and ultimately produced evidence of Syrian involvement in the
crime.
The legal pursuit
of Assad continues. Last week, Serge Brammertz of Belgium officially
replaced Mehlis. Brammertz has served as a prosecutor for the
International Criminal Court. He is tasked with continuing the
Hariri probe and investigating terrorist bombings in Lebanon since
October 2004. Brammertz also has spine -- he has summoned Bashar
Assad as a witness.
Assad can ignore
Brammertz -- the prosecutor has no means of enforcement other
than political pressure. Political pressure, however, is building.
Former Syrian Vice President Abdel-Halim Khaddam is talking. Khaddam
-- a 74 year-old politician who once worked for Bashar Assad's
father, Hafez al-Assad -- resigned as vice president in June 2005
and went into exile. (Hafez al-Assad died in 2000.)
Khaddam recently
told the German magazine Der Speigel that "the attack on
Hariri was ... one that could only have been set into motion by
the highest-ranking members of the power structure in Lebanon
and Syria."
"I am convinced,"
Khaddam added, "that the order (to kill Hariri) came from
Assad."
Khaddam is no democratic
dream. He's a Syrian Baathist and a Hafez al-Assad "Old Guard"
loyalist. He helped orchestrate Syria's occupation of Lebanon.
He understands the world has changed, however, and has begun organizing
a government in exile. He claims he supports political and economic
liberalization. He told an Arab interviewer that Syria must "change
from within. ... If the main vector for change is external, then
the interests of the country are harmed." However, Khaddam
knows international political support for regime change is essential.
Khaddam isn't clean,
he's a conniver -- but he may be a transitional leader acceptable
to Syria's security services, and one certainly preferable to
the chaos of a civil war.
Unlike rogue Iran,
Syria lacks oil cash. It's an economic basket case and vulnerable
to economic pressure. Unlike North Korea, it cannot seal itself
in a Stalinist shell. TV satellite dishes dot too many Syrian
roofs. Assad can kick journalists out of Damascus, but Syria's
borders are permeable.
On its own, an international
judicial inquiry won't topple Assad. However, the Syrian military,
pressured by U.N. investigators, squeezed by economic sanctions
and goaded by a government in exile, just might.
Copyright
2006 Creators Syndicate
