Democratic
National Chairman Howard Dean is talking of retaking control of
the Senate in the 2006 elections. With Republicans holding 55
seats, and having to defend only 15 of the 33 seats that are up
this year, that would be a tall order for the Democrats. With
Vice President Cheney able to cast a tie-breaker in a 50-50 Senate,
the Democrats would have to pick up a net of six seats to wrest
control of the chamber.
At the moment,
there are six Republican-held seats in some degree of jeopardy.
Those are the seats held by Conrad Burns in Montana, Lincoln Chafee
in Rhode Island, Mike DeWine in Ohio, Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania,
and Jim Talent in Missouri, plus the open seat in Tennessee being
vacated by Bill Frist for a probably fruitless try for the White
House. Hence, if the Democrats won all of these six races, and
also held the seats they currently control, some of which are
in jeopardy, they could win control of the Senate.
Democrat-held
seats that are in play include those of Robert Menendez, recently
appointed in New Jersey, and two open seats being vacated by Paul
Sarbanes in Maryland, and Mark Dayton in Minnesota. In other words,
Democrats would have to go 9 for 9 in the hotly contested seats
to win control of the Senate. That is very unlikely to happen,
even if the Democrats have a generally good year. Democrats had
a very good year in close Senate races in 2000, and Republicans
had a very good year in the contested races in 2004. But neither
side has swept all the close races.
There is
one wild card in these considerations: will Mississippi Senator
Trent Lott seek re-election? He has been keeping his thoughts
to himself. Were he to retire, a Democrat, former Attorney General
Mike Moore (not the Michael Moore seated next to Jimmy Carter
at the Democratic Convention in 2004)), would be favored to win
the open seat.
Following
the 2004 elections, Republicans believed that the 2006 elections
offered an opportunity to add to their gains from the 2004 cycle,
when they picked up a net gain of 4 seats. Several Democrats first
elected to the Senate in 2000 by narrow margins - Ben Nelson in
Nebraska, Maria Cantwell in Washington, Bill Nelson in Florida,
and Debbie Stabenow in Michigan - all appeared potentially vulnerable.
In addition, Republicans thought they had a shot at unseating
North Dakota Senator Kent Conrad if they could convince the popular
Governor John Hoeven to run, and even a shot at knocking off Robert
Byrd in increasingly Republican West Virginia (Bush won the state
by 13%) with Congresswoman Shelly Capito.
The Republicans
have done a poor job of getting their best potential candidates
to run in these states with vulnerable Democrat Senators. In Washington,
Dino Rossi, robbed
of the Governorship on the third and most dishonest recount in
King County in 2004, would have ridden a sympathy wave had he
run for the Senate against Cantwell. He probably stood a 50/50
shot in this Democrat-leaning state (Kerry won by 7%) for the
seat that Cantwell won by only 2,000 votes in 2000. But Rossi
had no interest in exchanging one Washington address (state) for
another (DC), and will probably try again for Governor in 2008.
Hoeven decided
not to run for the Senate seat in North Dakota, thereby enabling
the Democrats to continue to hold both US Senate seats in a solidly
red state that went 63% for Bush.
In Nebraska,
Governor Mike Johanns accepted an appointment as Secretary of
Agriculture. Johanns or former Nebraska football coach Tom Osborne
likely would have been favored against Ben Nelson for the Senate
seat in this heavily Republican state (Bush won 66%). But Osborne
chose to run for Governor, so Nelson may have a rematch with Don
Stenberg, the man he beat in 2000 for the open seat of Bob Kerrey.
In Florida,
Governor Jeb Bush had no interest in running for the Senate after
the completion of his second term as Governor, though he would
have been favored to win had he chosen to run (he won by 13% in
his last governor's race). Several Republican Congressmen who
might have been competitive in the Florida Senate race, are instead
competing for the nomination for Governor. Katherine Harris, a
favorite among conservative Republicans but probably not the best
statewide candidate, is trailing badly in the polls against Nelson.
In Michigan,
no Republican competing for the nomination runs close to Stabenow
in early polling. Several House members declined to take on Stabenow,
who won by only 1% in 2000.
Polls ten
months out before a midterm election are an unreliable indicator
of November results. But at the moment, the polls
suggest that Democrats are poised to win several of the seats
held by the five endangered Republican incumbents.
Mike DeWine
has pulled slightly ahead in the polls against all possible opponents
in Ohio (a state Bush won by 2%, and in which the GOP is scandal-plagued).
Jim Talent is running slightly behind Claire McCaskill in Missouri
(a state that leans increasingly Republican, with Bush winning
in 2004 by 7%).
Conrad Burns
is about even with his two possible challengers in Montana, after
slipping badly in the last two months due to a statewide TV campaign
linking him to the Abramoff scandal. Bush won in Montana by 20%
but Democrats won most of the other statewide races in 2004, and
Burns has had close races before.
Rick Santorum
trails badly against Bob Casey, Jr. in Pennsylvania (ten points),
in a state Kerry won by 2% in 2004. Lincoln Chafee may not even
get nominated in Rhode Island (having to face Cranston mayor Stephen
Laffey in a Republican primary). Rhode Island went to Kerry by
20% in 2004, but oddly has a Republican Governor, as well as Chafee,
the Senate's most liberal Republican (the son of a former Governor
and Senator).
A review
of the last four Congressional election cycles provides a bit
of comfort to the Republicans. In these 4 cycles, only 13 of 109
incumbents running for re-election to the Senate were defeated,
8 of them Republicans (Faircloth, D'Amato, Gorton, Roth, Grams,
Abrahams, Ashcroft and Hutchinson). The Democrat incumbents defeated
were: Mosely-Braun, Robb, Cleland, Carnahan, and Daschle. In all,
the challengers beat the incumbent in only 12% of the races. This
is a much higher rate for defeating incumbents than in the House,
but still not very high. The Republicans have in total 14 incumbents
running. If they lose all five contested seats, that would be
a 36% defeat rate, unusually high.
Among the
Democrats, the only incumbent who appears to be in trouble is
recently appointed Senator Robert Menendez in New Jersey. Menendez
replaced John Corzine, who became Governor and then appointed
Menendez to his old seat. Since Menendez was not elected Senator
and may face opponents in the Democratic primary this year, his
seat is in reality more of an open seat (with fewer advantages
of incumbency) than the other Democrats defending their seats
this year. The Republicans have settled on Tom Kean as the nominee,
the son of the popular former Governor. Early polls show Kean
very competitive with Menendez in a state which for the last 15
years has become reliably Democratic, though not always by large
margins (Kerry won by 7%).
While it
is tough to defeat incumbents, both parties have had success winning
the other party's open seats, particularly Republicans. In the
last 4 cycles, Republicans have held 7 of the 11 open seats they
had to defend (losing seats in Indiana to Evan Bayh, Florida to
Bill Nelson, Illinois to Barack Obama, and Colorado to Ken Salazar).
But the GOP captured 9 of 14 Democratic held open seats, with
Jim Bunning winning in Kentucky, George Voinovich in Ohio, John
Ensign in Nevada, Norm Coleman in Minnesota, plus victories in
five open seats formerly held by Democrats in the South in 2004,
including David Vitter in Louisiana, Johnny Isakson in Georgia,
Mel Martinez in Florida, Jim DeMint in South Carolina and Richard
Burr in North Carolina. In total, the Republicans have won the
last nine open seat races in the South.
Slightly
over half the time (52%) an open Senate seat changes hands between
the parties.
If one counts
Vermont as a Democratic seat (retiring senator Jim Jeffords),
and New Jersey as an open seat, then in reality there are 4 Democrat-held
open seats this cycle, and only one Republican-held open seat,
in Tennessee.
In Tennessee,
the Democrats have cleared the field for African-American Congressman
Harold Ford, and the Republicans will have a contentious primary
to pick their nominee. At the moment, the leading Republican nominees,
Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant, run slightly ahead of Ford. Bush won
Tennessee by 14% in 2004, and it appears to be growing more Republican
in statewide federal races. Ford is a slight underdog, I think.
Republicans
have a real shot not only in New Jersey, but also in Maryland
and Minnesota. In Maryland, Lt. Governor Michael Steele currently
polls ahead of both of his possible opponents, former NAACP head
Kweisi Mfume, and Congressman Ben Cardin. The Democratic primary
fight will be a bitter one, which will only help Steele's efforts.
Maryland is a heavily Democratic state (Kerry won by 13%), and
has the 3rd highest African American percentage of the population
in the country, at 30% (only Mississippi and Louisiana are higher).
Steele, if
elected, would be the first black Republican in the Senate since
Ed Brooke of Massachusetts. Steele seems to be benefiting from
a series of shameful
attacks by opponents trying to demean his black identity (his
real crime is being a Republican with a chance to win a Democratic
held Senate seat), as well as some shenanigans
directed out of Senator Schumer's office, with aides trying to
dig up dirt on Steele by obtaining his confidential credit report.
In Minnesota,
Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy will be the GOP nominee, and
several Democrats are competing to run against him. In the latest
polling, Kennedy runs slightly behind two potential opponents,
Amy Klobuchar, and Patty Wetterling, and ahead of two others,
Ford Bell and Mike Ciresi. Minnesota has become more of a tossup
state (Kerry won by 3%), and Norm Coleman beat Walter Mondale
for the open Senate seat after Paul Wellstone's death in a plane
crash in October 2002.
In Vermont,
Socialist Congressman Bernie Sanders will likely succeed Jim Jeffords.
Vermont gave the nation Howard Dean, and soon its only (admittedly)
socialist Senator.
Given the
Republicans' track record in open seats, if they win 2 or 3 of
the open seat races in New Jersey, Maryland, Minnesota, and Tennessee
(which seems possible), that will serve as a fallback if a few
of their incumbents running for re-election are knocked off (as
seems likely).
In essence,
the GOP is defending 6 of the 9 competitive seats. If they win
6, they hold at 55 seats. Based on current polls, they might win
4 or 5, which would result in a loss of a seat or two. There is
an outside chance if Talent, DeWine and Burns hold on, that the
GOP could retain its 55 seat majority by winning 3 of the 4 competitive
open seat races (Maryland, Minnesota, Tennessee and New Jersey).
In any case,
unless the landscape changes quite a bit between now and November,
this Fall will not be a disaster for the GOP in the Senate.
Richard
Baehr is the chief political correspondent of The
American Thinker.
