January 17, 2006
Condi Says She’s Not Running. Believe It.
By Jay
Cost
Earlier
this week the Associated Press reported
that Condoleeza Rice once again said that she is not
seeking the presidency. Of course, the fact that she has to consistently
deny that she is seeking the presidency indicates that people
do not really believe her denials. Perhaps it is because they
do not want to believe them. Rice always polls very well among
Republican primary voters. And many think that she would be a
safe bet in 2008. She is likeable, qualified and capable of securing
African-American voters (so the conventional wisdom goes). But
Condi keeps saying no, she will not run.
The question:
should people believe her?
The answer:
definitely. Condoleeza Rice will not seek the presidency in 2008.
The reason for this is that the position of Secretary of State
is no longer one from which the presidency can reasonably be sought.
The fact that Rice took that job – and obviously has no
intention of leaving it – indicates that she has no interest
in the presidency.
A long time
ago, State was almost a prerequisite for the White House. Six
of our first fifteen presidents – Thomas Jefferson, James
Madison, James Monroe, John Quincy Adams, Martin Van Buren and
James Buchanan – served as Secretary of State prior to election
to the White House. What is more, there is a long list of presidential
candidates who served in the same capacity, either before or (mostly)
after their White House run – notably Henry Clay, John Calhoun,
William Jennings Bryan, Charles Evans Hughes and Alexander Haig.
That office remains one of the preeminent political positions
in this country. Of this there is no doubt.
However,
it has not been a step to the presidency in 150 years. Zero of
our last twenty-seven presidents have been Secretary of State.
And the number of secretaries-turned-candidates has also been
few and far between. Since Buchanan, only one person, James G.
Blaine, has received a presidential nomination after having served
as Secretary of State. The rest, like Bryan and Hughes, sought
the presidency and lost – and were subsequently honored
by a victorious president of their party with the post. This seems
counterintuitive. After all, this position has very frequently
been filled by individuals of immense talent and intelligence.
Why has the American public not made use of this resource? The
answer has to do with matters of politics, rather than matters
of governance.
First, the
number of prominent political positions, i.e. those from which
an ambitious politician could stage a presidential campaign, have
increased dramatically since the early days of the Republic. Governorships
are now much more prominent on a national level. So, also, are
seats in the Senate. These positions offer one a better opportunity
for the kind of political posturing necessary to secure a major
party nomination. Secretaries of State, on the other hand, must
always be measured and reserved in their remarks. They are, after
all, the nation’s chief diplomats.
Second,
it is no coincidence that only three secretaries of State –
Van Buren, Buchanan and Blaine – have received a presidential
nomination since it was no longer in the hands of a party’s
congressional caucus. Between roughly 1828 and 1960, party nominees
were chosen largely by state party bosses at nominating conventions.
It was unlikely that state bosses were thinking about the nation’s
top diplomat when considering whom to nominate. Congressional
caucuses, which nominated candidates in the early years of the
Republic and which were much more connected to the happenings
of the federal government, were more impressed by secretaries
of State.
The rise
of the political primary as a replacement for the boss-controlled
nominating convention has not changed the secretary’s position
vis-à-vis the presidency, either. In fact, it has worsened
it. The top job at State is, to say the least, a labor-intensive
one. The Secretary is required to put in much more time than,
say, a governor or a senator, who can safely dedicate lots of
time to campaigning. But the Secretary of State is always and
exclusively at the service of the President. There is no time
for glad-handing at a cookout in Iowa or fishing with the chair
of the Manchester, NH Republican Party. There is also no time
for the fundraising. Major party presidential nominees are no
longer chosen by congressional caucus or by party bosses at a
convention. They are now chosen by the people, who require long
and expensive campaigns that begin months-to-years prior to the
actual date of voting. No Secretary of State has time for that
kind of commitment. This is probably why the post has most recently
been held by individuals who seem to be at the end of their political
careers: Colin Powell, Madeline Albright, Warren Christopher,
Lawrence Eagleburger, James Baker, George Schultz, etc.
So, while
this job used to be one from which candidates would emerge, it
is now no longer so. This is important for understanding Condoleeza
Rice. If she wanted to be President in 2009, she would not
be at State today. She would have secured for herself some
other position of political prominence. State is perhaps the only
position that is both maximally prominent and minimally effective
for attaining the presidency. Why would she be there if she was
interested in the White House?
If she is
not interested in the presidency, she will not be running for
the presidency. People who run for the White House have wanted
to be President for a very long time. Nobody is drafted for that
position, not anymore and not in the true sense of the word “draft”.
Putting aside all the campaign rhetoric about duty or experience
to justify candidacies, the bottom line is that people who actually
run are people who are hungry for the office and who have worked
for a long time to place themselves in a position from which they
could attain it. Condi is clearly not such a person.
It is interesting
to note, by way of conclusion, that Rice responded to the question
about the 2008 race while she was literally on her way out the
door to Africa. That should tell you all you need to know. Compare
Rice to the other 2008 candidates – McCain, Romney, Allen,
Clinton, etc. The latter are today thinking about and preparing
for their campaigns. Condoleeza Rice is today thinking about US-Liberian
relations. What else do you need to know? Condi will not run in
2008.
Jay
Cost, creator of the Horse
Race Blog, is a doctoral candidate of political science at
the University of Chicago. He can be reached at jay_cost@hotmail.com.
