January
16, 2004
Greenberg Book Shows Democrats Way to Win - in 2008
By Mort
Kondracke
What's the
best way for Democrats to regain the White House? Bash President
Bush? Attack "crony capitalism"? Excite the party's base? Or retool
the Democratic message to appeal to a broader constituency?
Democratic
pollster Stan Greenberg's new book, "The Two Americas: Our Current
Political Deadlock and How to Break It," argues that his party
can win any of those ways, but he'd prefer a "strategic change"
that wins back voters who've fallen away, including rural voters
and white males.
Greenberg,
who polled for Bill Clinton in 1992 and Al Gore in 2000, thinks
Democrats should revive the broad appeal of John F. Kennedy with
a program that includes universal private health insurance, guaranteed
college, a strong defense, public financing of campaigns and an
"Apollo project" for energy independence.
At a discussion
session on the book last week, Republican pollster Bill McInturff
said he doubted that any Democrat could implement Greenberg's
change in 2004, but he said it might happen in 2008.
It could
be done, he said, "by someone who supported the Iraq war and the
$87 billion budget request to finish the job, went to Iraq to
visit the troops, comes from a religious tradition, was raised
in the Midwest and is interested in the recovery of rural areas
in New York state."
He was talking,
of course, about Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), but he
said, "I hope that the battle between the [Howard] Dean wing of
the party and the Clinton wing will be sufficiently bitter that
we [Republicans] can survive in 2008."
Indeed, looking
at the 2004 Democratic field, each major candidate seems to be
emphasizing one or another of Greenberg's less-preferred strategies.
None is trying what he calls the "100 percent America" strategy
of reuniting the whole country.
The basis
thesis of Greenberg's book is the familiar one - that the U.S.
electorate is split down the middle, largely on cultural issues,
and that each party is striving to win elections by energizing
its own base and wooing swing voters.
"We are trapped
in an ugly parity that drives both parties, each tantalizingly
close to tasting the fruits of victory, to more intense battles
that leave the country more divided and its citizens forced to
choose between contending cultures," he writes.
Republicans,
with an appeal based on piety, foreign policy assertiveness, traditional
values, oppostion to abortion, individualism, "greed," and lack
of concern about minorities and women's rights, Greenberg contends,
have a solid hold on 46 percent of the electorate.
Their core
consists of white evangelicals (17 percent of the total vote,
splitting 72 for the GOP), rural voters (21 percent of the total,
53 percent GOP), the Deep South (20/ 59), exurbanites (8/56),
angry white males (13/60) and upper-income males (13/61).
Democrats
also hold about 46 percent of the electorate, with an appeal based
on minority rights, tolerant, secular "post-modernism" on gay
rights, abortion and other lifestyle issues; a multilateral foreign
policy and use of government to solve problems. T
he Democratic
base consists of blacks (10 percent of the electorate, 86 percent
Democratic), Hispanics (7/55), women with post-graduate degrees
(7/63), "secular warriors" (15/63), "cosmopolitan states" (24/
52) and union families (15/53).
The groups
that are up for grabs include men with post-graduate educations,
college-educated women, young people, older women, Roman Catholics
and non-college women, married and single.
Greenberg
anticipates - logically enough - that Bush's political guru, Karl
Rove, has designed a 2004 strategy designed to hold the GOP base,
turn out every GOP voter and appeal to swing voters and Democrats
through steel import quotas, the Medicare prescription drug benefit,
immigration reform and various "compassionate conservative" initiatives.
Greenberg
admits that Bush has a tactical advantage in 2004 by controlling
all three branches of the federal government and a majority of
state governments and also has benefited from the nation's preoccupation
with terrorism.
But he posits
five tactical ways for Democratic success under the "two Americas"
strategy that's like Rove's - or a "100 percent America" strategy
that he claims could lead Democrats back to dominant status.
The five
tactics are being tried by some or all of the current Democratic
candidates. All emphasize the "agenda gap" between Democrats and
Bush - on health care, the environment and foreign policy. Dean
emerged as the frontrunner by opposing everything Bush stands
for.
Most Democrats
hope to win by exciting core Democrats - blacks, feminists and
union members - by bashing Bush. Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) has
made a special appeal based on Bush's corporate connections, but
other have, as well.
All the Democrats
are also trying to outbid Bush for the support of Hispanics and
seniors. And some of them, notably Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.)
and retired Gen. Wesley Clark, want to offer "reassurances" that
Democrats can match Bush as strong foreign policy leaders.
Greenberg
hopes Democrats will reach beyond these tactical approaches by
adopting his new agenda. In fact, in the position papers the candidates
have put out, most of them do have new plans on health care, college
aid and energy independence. And most of them promise a "strong"
foreign policy.
Two things
are wrong with the Greenberg formulation. One is that most Democrats
simply aren't trusted on foreign policy. John F. Kennedy was a
hawk and most Democrats are doves. And, Greenberg argues for a
positive "opportunity agenda," but still wants Democrats to bash
Republicans as greedy, corporate and insensitive.
Bush is
on his way to winning this election because Democrats spend so
much time sounding angry and negative that no one hears any positives.
And, Bush is an optimist.
Mort Kondracke is the Executive
Editor of Roll Call.
