January 13, 2006
The
Presidential Prizefight '08
Ideology
Versus Electability in Both Parties (Part I: The Republicans)
By Larry
Sabato
As 2006 dawns,
the presidential sweepstakes--or is it a lottery?--is taking on
heightened visibility. Partly, it's President Bush's overall weakness,
apparent or real. A lame duck residing at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue
encourages early speculation about the Bush succession if only
because political observers don't believe George W. Bush can or
will get much done for the balance of his term. (As usual, the
political cognoscenti are probably wrong, but never mind...)
Then, too,
the wide open nature of the 2008 party primaries is remarkable.
This is only the fifth time since the dawn of the twentieth century
that the incumbent President or Vice President has not been running--the
earlier examples were 1908, 1920, 1928, and 1952. In 1908 and
1928, the incumbent Republican Party had obvious, winning successors
in William Howard Taft and Herbert Hoover, who filled the early
void much as a Vice President in-line to succeed Presidents Teddy
Roosevelt and Calvin Coolidge would have done. There is no obvious
Republican successor to George W. Bush in 2008, an electoral situation
that only Woodrow Wilson (laid low by a debilitating stroke) and
Harry Truman (crippled by devastating unpopularity) faced. Wilson
promoted no Democrat because he clearly hoped for a third consecutive
Democratic nomination, despite his illness. Truman eventually
helped Adlai Stevenson become the Democratic standard-bearer,
though he had no real influence to produce victory for Stevenson
in the autumn of '52.
With Dick
Cheney obviously removed from any surprise presidential consideration
after his chief of staff's indictment, will Bush try to promote
another GOP candidate, publicly or privately, before the crucial
moment comes in the 2008 primary season? Even if Bush remains
unpopular with the general population in early 2008, his endorsement
might have critical influence with loyal Republicans unsure of
what to do without a crown prince. On the other hand, Republicans
could be looking for the un-Bush if they are convinced the electorate
wants a change in direction after eight years. In this circumstance,
Bush's nod could backfire, and candidates may try to avoid close
association with the President. It's so early, who can say which
scenario will play out?
For the Republicans,
the early informed speculation has focused on the renewal of the
McCain phenomenon. John McCain's possible '08 nomination seemed
unthinkable after his 2000 campaign imploded and he was left with
backing only in moderate segments of an overwhelmingly conservative
party. The last maverick nominated by maverick-averse Republicans
was Wendell Willkie, who lost to FDR in 1940. McCain had also
painted himself into a liberal corner, despite a fairly conservative
Senate voting record. His support for First Amendment-destructive
campaign finance reform, his transparent (and reciprocated) bitterness
towards Bush, his attacks on Christian evangelical leaders, and
perhaps most of all, his slavish fan club in the elite New York-D.C.
establishment press corps were all counted heavily against him
by rank-and-file conservative Republicans. McCain's bouts with
cancer and his age in '08 (72 years) make his prospects even more
remote.
Yet McCain
has made many smart moves. The turnaround came first with his
intense campaigning with President Bush when the President's reelection
was far from a sure thing. Bush needed McCain badly, and McCain
showed up without attitude. Then, McCain's fervent backing for
the administration's Iraq policy provided vital ballast when Bush
was being buffeted on all sides in 2005. In addition, McCain has
begun to reemphasize his conservative positions on social issues,
such as gay rights and abortion. Amazingly, this has cost him
little support from his legion of media friends who, while far
more liberal than he, enjoy his free-wheeling company and the
'bipartisan' aura he extends to their shows. (No doubt, with Ben
Bradlee's JFK friendship in the early 1960s as a model, these
anchor-elites and print impresarios hope and expect their tie
to lead to rewarding White House access in the McCain administration.)
Underlying
the McCain revival is a growing belief by senior Republicans that
a candidate in the Bush mold will be unable to win the elusive
"third term" for the GOP. The most reliable and powerful
campaign theme in all of American history is, "It's Time
for a Change." After two terms of George W. Bush, the public
is likely to want a change of some sort, providing it's not too
drastic. A candidate who looks and sounds like Bush will be at
a significant disadvantage, goes this line of thinking. Therefore,
say the GOP's high pooh-bahs, why not give the electorate a refreshing
change via the Republican nomination? There may be no more convincing
rationale for McCain's nomination, but this assumes that Bush
remains unpopular and that electability trumps ideology. The latter
is never a sure bet with party activists, who usually hold to
principle even with the prospect of defeat.
The polar
opposite of McCain is the Beltway insiders' choice for GOP nominee,
Senator George Allen of Virginia. Allen has long been a conservative
golden boy, and where he does not fit the Right's requirements,
he has been flip-flopping his way toward acceptability (changing
his support of hate crimes legislation that includes sexual orientation
to opposition, switching from opposition to support of the constitutional
amendment to ban gay marriage, and so on--not to mention finding
religion on ethanol, Iowa's quid pro quo for caucus consideration).
The Allen image of charismatic cowboy-cum-tax cuts reminds his
ardent supporters of Ronald Reagan, though critics see in him
a re-make of George W. Bush: a very conservative, tobacco-spitting
Southern governor with a misspent youth, a hee-haw demeanor, a
lack of substantial foreign policy experience in a dangerous age,
and ever-ready inarticulate bromides that substitute for sound
policy. Nonetheless, if Republicans decide to stick with the tried-and-true,
Allen could easily end up as the party's presidential nominee.
Having defeated women for both the U.S. House in a special 1991
election and then the Virginia governorship in 1993, Allen would
hope for a Hillary Clinton nomination--his easiest path to the
White House.
Other Republican
candidates are in the hunt in this wide-open contest, and yet
it is difficult to see a path for some of them to win. Massachusetts
Governor Mitt Romney is magnetic, articulate, intriguing, and
close to New Hampshire, so he could surprise us. But how does
a Mormon from Massachusetts--the enemy state for Republicans--overcome
all the obvious obstacles in his path, such as only one term as
governor, some moderate positions in his 2002 campaign, and his
lack of foreign policy experience? New York Governor George Pataki
is also underwhelming. He is surprisingly obscure for a three-termer,
is leaving office unpopular in his home state, would be unlikely
to carry New York in November, and has positions on social issues
so liberal that he cannot hope to secure the votes of most GOP
conservatives.
Arkansas
Governor Mike Huckabee lost over 100 pounds, which is admirable,
but it doesn't make for much of a presidential platform. And can
Republicans contemplate choosing a presidential nominee from Bill
Clinton's state so soon after the Clinton administration? Little
known Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas has a geographic advantage,
perhaps, in the Iowa caucuses, but he is perceived as a Sammy-one-note
on abortion. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is a hard-driving,
exceedingly bright man who has secured the worst reviews for his
budding candidacy in the entire field. Maybe once he leaves the
presidential candidacy hellhole called the Senate in early 2007
he will be able to regenerate his White House bid. Former House
Speaker Newt Gingrich is eternally engaging and creative, but
no one yet takes his potential candidacy seriously. Sen. Chuck
Hagel of Nebraska might be a substitute for John McCain if McCain
chooses not to run, yet he has most of McCain's problems and few
of his advantages. Oh yes, Nebraska is also close to Iowa.
Some of the
arguably best Republican candidates aren't running, including
former Big Apple Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Secretary of State Condoleeza
Rice, and Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Could one or more reconsider?
Could a hero or two from the 2006 elections emerge and take the
party by storm? All possible, but not bloody likely.
Dr.
Sabato, the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University
of Virginia, founded the Center
for Politics in 1998.
