Osama bin
Laden hasn't made a single peep publicly in over a year —
his longest absence since 9/11. The ghoul's eerie silence is both
disturbing — and odd — for the leader of a global
terrorist organization hellbent on changing world order.
So what is Public
Enemy No. 1 up to? Osama's glaring absence from the world stage
means one of three things: a) We've been closing in on him and
he's gone deeper underground; b) He's lulling us into complacency
while planning another big terrorist strike, or c) He's dead.
It's hard to believe
the world hasn't heard a word from Osama since Dec. 27, 2004,
the day of the release of his audiotape anointing Abu Musab al
Zarqawi as al Qaeda's head honcho in Iraq. (Since it took time
arriving from Osama's hideout, the tape probably was made even
earlier in the fall).
Earlier that December,
Osama released a video calling for al Qaeda to strike Persian
Gulf oil supplies and warning the apostate House of Saud that
they risked a popular uprising.
Since these two cameos,
not a single evil "Osama-gram" of any kind . . .
Not that al Qaeda
has been completely mum on the propaganda front since late 2004.
Stepping into the media limelight as recently as last Friday has
been Osama's deputy and the "brains" of al Qaeda, the
bespectacled Egyptian physician Ayman al Zawahiri.
Most notably, Zawahiri
insisted in a videotape last September that Osama was, in fact,
alive and well, saying: "Al Qaeda for holy war is still,
thanks to God, a base for jihad. Its prince Osama bin Laden, may
God protect him, still leads the jihad."
You have to wonder
why al Qaeda's mythical leader couldn't find his way to the camera
himself to tell us all of this instead of relying on Zawahiri?
Hmmm . . . makes you wonder.
Of course, without
irrefutable evidence, no political leader has been willing to
declare Osama dead. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf said
he didn't know whether Osama was dead or alive, adding that he
didn't want to speculate over the killer's fate.
In Afghanistan, the
U.S. commander, Gen. Karl Eikenberry, insists that Osama is still
considered alive — and the hunt continues. His boss, Defense
Secretary Don Rumsfeld, recently said that he doubts Osama is
still capable of running al Qaeda's global terror operations.
Even Islamists, in
some of their numerous Web sites, have begun to speculate on Osama's
demise.
Of course, until we
have proof positive of a demise, we have to assume Osama is "at
large and in charge." Any assumption short of that would
be foolhardy — and potentially deadly.
It's very possible
that Osama, a fugitive on the run and under continuing pressure
by U.S. forces, has gone incommunicado along the rugged Afghan-Pakistan
border. He may have also fled into safe haven in neighboring Iran
— or even left the region completely.
By lowering his profile,
Osama may also be trying to lull us into complacency four-plus
years after 9/11, while he plans the next big attack. "Out
of sight, out of mind" could lead to America dropping its
guard; complacency is as big a threat to our security as Osama
and al Qaeda.
It's also possible
that Osama has gone "belly up." Although there is disagreement
about whether Osama has kidney problems, few consider him a picture
of health. Hanging out in caves for four years probably hasn't
improved his condition —physical or mental.
All that said, the
fact remains that Osama is al Qaeda's trademark and the source
of inspiration to the Islamic terrorist movement. It makes no
sense for him to disappear from view for over a year while his
phalanxes are waging a bloody jihad from the London's subways
to Baghdad's streets to Bali's tropical isle.
Osama's prolonged
absence — and the increasing prominence of his evil twin,
Zawahiri, can only reasonably mean one thing: Osama is either
dead, sick or incapacitated — all unsuitable states for
propaganda productions.
Osama's ultimate demise
would certainly be great news for this country — and the
world. In fact, although no guarantee, proof of Osama's death
just might be the beginning of the end of al Qaeda.
Which, of course,
gives al Qaeda good reason to never admit it.
Unfortunately, al
Qaeda isn't just Osama bin Laden. Even if Osama is dead, the international
movement may continue. The War on Terror won't be won until Osama's
ideology is buried once and for all.
Peter
Brookes is a Heritage
Foundation senior fellow. This article originally appeared
in The New York Post.
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