December 5, 2005
Gaining Ground: Clear Progress in Iraq
By Peter
Brookes
The "Cut and Run Crowd" are proving to be the worst
kind of pessimists on Iraq - refusing to see the significant evidence
that things are starting to go our way militarily.
No, no one
should be turning cartwheels just yet over security and stability
in Iraq - there is still a lot to be done. But several favorable
developments should make even the "Doom-n-Gloomers"
take note.
The U.S.
military is having significant success securing the Syrian border
- previously a sieve for Iraqi and foreign insurgents/terrorists
seeping into Iraq. Result: It's tougher for Syria-based Sunni
insurgents to orchestrate or support attacks in Iraq. Suicide
bombings are down 30 percent since the October referendum.
International
pressure on the Syrian regime - including the possibility of punitive
U.N. economic sanctions over the killing of former Lebanese Prime
Minister Rafik Hariri - may also be "encouraging" Damascus
to decrease its support for the Iraqi insurgency.
Abu Musab
al Zarqawi's cast of al Qaeda killers seems to be in increasing
disarray. Recent intelligence reports suggest near-mutiny in al
Qaeda's ranks - most likely thanks to U.S. forces capturing/killing
operatives in large numbers, cash crunches and an influx of "green"
recruits.
The American
military's new "Clear, Hold and Build" strategy is plainly
putting the squeeze on al Qaeda. It improves upon the "Whack
a Mole" (i.e., random search-and-destroy) strategy by establishing
a permanent Iraqi security presence that makes it harder for the
insurgents to return once they've been evicted.
Still, some
Iraqis continue to sign on to become suicide bombers - still the
most deadly form of attack in Iraq. While locals can often readily
discern foreign terrorists/fighters, it's much harder to disrupt
attacks by native Iraqis.
Some Sunnis
- insurgents, supporters and intermediaries - are coming to the
table to talk with the Iraqi government and U.S. forces about
ways to end the conflict. Not surprisingly, one of the major issues
is an American withdrawal, which is obviously in the cards at
some appropriate point in the future.
Negotiating
a phased - not immediate - withdrawal of Coalition forces based
upon the Sunni insurgents' cessation of hostilities could be a
win-win situation. In a best-case scenario, after reaching an
agreement, Iraqi and Coalition forces would turn their attention
to crushing the remaining al Qaeda elements in the country.
It's even
conceivable that marshalling Iraqi and Coalition forces against
the foreign terrorists could make Iraq al Qaeda's last stand.
A high-visibility defeat for Zarqawi would be a severe blow to
al Qaeda's prestige as a movement - hindering operations, fund-raising
and most importantly, recruitment.
Zalmay Khalizad,
America's highly capable ambassador to Iraq, is opening quiet
talks with the neighboring Iranians, who have been causing significant
trouble in Iraq. Getting Tehran to drop its support for the insurgency
- which includes weapons, training and financing - would go a
long way toward ending the death and destruction.
The training
of Iraqi security forces (e.g., police, military and intelligence)
is increasingly effective and (finally!) making headway. This
is not only important for short-term dealings with the terrorists,
but also for providing for Iraq's long-term national defense against
the likes of Iran and Syria.
As President
Bush said last week, more than 30 Iraqi Army battalions are controlling
their own areas of operation, including some of the toughest Baghdad
streets. The Pentagon says more than a dozen military bases have
been turned over to the Iraqis, including a former Saddam Hussein
palace.
If political/economic
progress persists, and security trends continue along these lines,
it's very likely that the American force level in Iraq will be
able to shrink to 50,000-75,000 troops by next summer. (It will
be necessary to keep more troops in the neighborhood to allow
a U.S. "surge capability" in case it's needed.)
Next week's
historic elections will put more wind in the sails of the new
Iraqi ship of state.
The United
States and Iraq still have to navigate dangerous insurgent shoals,
and maneuver a course around tricky political, economic and social
buoys for a while yet. But we're plotting a course for total victory
in Iraq, and as hard as it is for the Nervous Nellies and Henny
Pennies to swallow, the bottom line is that the security situation
in Iraq is showing a lot of promise. The nattering nabobs of negativism
shouldn't be afraid to acknowledge it.
Peter
Brookes is a Heritage
Foundation senior fellow. This article originally appeared
in The New York Post.
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