December 27, 2005
Hearts and Minds
By Peter
Brookes
Military operations against terrorism are essential in places
like Iraq and Afghanistan, but Islamic extremism will be defeated
as much — if not more — in the Muslim heart and mind
as on the battlefield.
So, at least,
suggests a new Pakistani survey.
The Pakistan
branch of ACNielsen did the poll for the D.C.-based nonprofit
Terror Free Tomorrow. The key finding: Pakistan — long a
hotbed of terrorism and extremism, and still the suspected hiding
place for Osama bin Laden, and other senior terrorist leaders
— now holds the United States in higher regard than at any
time since 9/11.
More: Support
among Pakistanis for al Qaeda and terrorism has plummeted to its
lowest level in over four years.
What's behind
this seismic shift in Pakistani public mood?
Seeing Afghanistan
gaining ground may help, but the pollsters point to U.S. humanitarian
aid and assistance in the aftermath of October's devastating earthquake
in Pakistan.
The quake
(7.6 magnitude) killed over 75,000 people, injured tens of thousands
and left 3 million homeless. In the tragedy's aftermath, the United
States, quickly pledged nearly $500 million for relief/reconstruction
efforts, including $300 million in humanitarian aid, $100 million
to support Pentagon relief operations — plus over $70 million
in private American donations.
And we delivered
on those promises, starting right away.
Over 250
U.S. military and civilian cargo airlifts delivered more than
7,000 tons of medical supplies, food, shelter material, blankets
and rescue equipment to Pakistan. And more than 1,000 American
civilians traveled to South Asia to lend a hand.
U.S. military
helicopters have flown over 3,000 missions delivering more than
10 million pounds of relief supplies and moving more than 15,000
people, including over 4,300 Pakistanis desperately in need of
medical attention.
A 125-person
Navy "Sea Bee" construction unit is clearing debris,
erecting support facilities and building refugee camps to ward
off the harsh local winter; a U.S. Army "MASH" medical
unit has provided urgent medical care to over 9,000 injured people.
Cut to the
poll of 1,450 Pakistanis, surveyed last month:
* Because
of America's response, 78 percent of those asked have a more favorable
opinion of the United States, with the strongest support coming
from Pakistanis under 35.
* Positive
opinions of the United States in Pakistan doubled from
23 percent in May to more than 46 percent in November; negative
views fell from 48 percent to 28 percent.
* Over the
same period, support for the "mythical" Osama bin Laden
dropped from 51 to 33 percent; those opposing the al
Qaeda boss jumped from 23 percent to 41 percent.
* Those who
see terrorist suicide attacks as never justifiable shot
up from 45 percent to 73 percent.
* Biggest
bombshell of all: The United States proved more popular than both
other Western countries and radical Islamist groups.
Not all the
news was good: Pakistanis increasingly oppose the U.S.-led War
on Terror — up from 52 percent in May to 64 percent now.
OK, so what
does this mean?
First, America
humanitarian aid and assistance plainly can make a difference
in Muslim-world attitudes about the United States, terrorism and
radicalism. (Polls have found a similar story in Indonesia —
a nation that's been struck by al Qaeda-affiliate Jemaah Islamiya
four times in three years — in the wake of the strong U.S.
response to last December's tsunami.)
Second, the
military element of the War on Terror remains unpopular in the
Muslim world.
This last
point can't rule out necessary actions — after all, America's
failure to answer provocations plainly helped lead to 9/11: Al
Qaeda not only grew confident that the United States would retreat
whenever attacked, it used its growing series of successes against
the United States as a powerful recruiting tool.
That said,
it's plainly a mistake to overemphasize the use of U.S. "hard
power" when "soft power" can also fight terrorism/radicalism,
and support the development of political, economic and social
freedom.
Third —
and perhaps most important — we must recognize that support
for al Qaeda and Islamic extremism has proven to not be absolute,
but rather circumstantial and weakening. If it can be undermined
in a crucible of Islamic radicalism/extremism like Pakistan, it
can be overcome anywhere.
So, with
a brand-spanking new parliament in Afghanistan, a third successful
round of nationwide voting in Iraq — and good news like
this from Pakistan — it's no wonder the world hasn't heard
a peep from Osama bin Laden in almost a year.
Peter
Brookes is a Heritage
Foundation senior fellow. This article originally appeared
in The New York Post.
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