July 31, 2000

The Teflon Ticket
By Tom Bevan

Al Gore has been attacking George W. Bush for nearly five months on a wide range of issues including Social Security, abortion, gun control and the environment. Yet Bush & Co. sail into Philadelphia this week up 10-15 points according to the latest polls. Even a frantic week-long blitz by Democrats and the media over Dick Cheney's conservative voting record couldn't lessen the bounce the Bush campaign received from its Vice Presidential selection. As if that weren't bad enough news for Al Gore, this week the Bush/Cheney ticket will introduce America to a new brand of conservatism - complete with a wide variety of speakers and "compassionate" programs - that will make them even harder to attack as right wing extremists. America, say hello to the Teflon Ticket.

Bush strategists don't expect to receive much additional bounce from the convention because they have already solidified their Republican base. What they do expect, however, is to showcase George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as thoughtful men intent upon "renewing America's purpose" through a variety of initiatives grounded in conservative philosophy (education reform, Social Security reform, etc.). If they are able to achieve this, the Bush/Cheney ticket will depart the convention with a solid 13-18 point lead and little in the way of political vulnerability.

One potential avenue is for Gore to attack Bush and Cheney on guns and abortion. These are two hot-button issues that Gore has easily demagogued in the past, and Cheney's staunch pro-life and pro-second amendment stance will allow Gore to try to scare the public out of a vote for Bush/Cheney. However, this tactic hasn't worked against Bush so far and probably won't bear any fruit between now and November, primarily because gun control and abortion rights are not at the top of most Americans' list of important issues. Furthermore, hounding Cheney on these issues only serves to highlight Al Gore's equally conservative record in the House and his "evolution" to his more current liberal views.

Gore's staff has already said on record that this is likely to be the nastiest campaign ever. If Gore isn't able to close the gap with Bush to within a few points later this month with a convention bounce of his own, look for the attacks to hit the airwaves. Gore and the DNC will flood Americans' living rooms with ads claiming that a Bush/Cheney administration will take money away from children, take pills from the elderly and strip mine Yellowstone National Park - and that's when there not busy sucking up to Big Oil, Big Tobacco and the Big Drug Companies.

These attacks won't work for the same reason Ronald Reagan drove the liberals and the national press crazy with his conservative ideology - the American people liked Ronald Reagan. Reagan's optimistic idealism was contagious and helped solidify him as the original Teflon politician.

Twenty years later Americans are once again being drawn to the positive messages emanating from a very likeable Republican candidate. Cheney's addition to the ticket adds another coating of Teflon that will be even harder to pierce: respectability.

Gore is notorious for destroying his opponents by throwing mud and making it stick. This time around, he will be hard pressed to find anything that will cling to the Teflon Ticket.

Tom Bevan writes for RealClearPolitics