Thursday, September 23 2004
FLORIDA, ARG, KERRY UP 1PT?: Yesterday I was speaking with a major pollster who has been polling in Florida for over twenty years. He had serious questions about the ARG poll released yesterday showing Kerry ahead one point in the state.

ARG's poll was conducted Friday - Monday and this pollster had several problems with those dates. First, he wondered how you could get through to anyone in the panhandle when there was still massive electric and phone outages throughout that entire section of the state. Second, Friday night polling is apparently seriously discouraged in Florida because of Friday night high school football.

He pointed to a just concluded 2 -day poll of 800 likely voters in Florida's I-4 Corridor (the swing part of the state from Daytona to Tampa which traditionally mirrors the state wide vote, give or take a point or two) which had President Bush leading Senator Kerry by 13 points, 51 - 38. The same poll also had Governor Jeb Bush's approval rating for the hurricanes at 84%. Given these numbers this pollster felt it extremely unlikely John Kerry was ahead in Florida by one point.

Apparently Quinnipiac agrees. They have just released a Florida poll of 819 likely voters (Late Correction: it is registered voters) showing President Bush leading Senator Kerry, 49 - 41. J. McIntyre 12:06 pm Link | Email | Send to a Friend