Wednesday,
September 22 2004
RCP ELECTORAL COUNT: Our current RCP
Electoral Count has President Bush with 284 to Senator
Kerry's 200, with 54 EV's rated as "toss ups."
We've gotten a number of emails asking why certain states
are rated as toss ups and/or leaning one way or the other,
particularly in relation to the most recent polling in each
state.
We
use five criteria to allocate states electorally. Here they
are, in order of importance:
1)
The latest nonpartisan polls in the state, giving higher
priority to the more established and well respected polling
firms.
2)
Where the national polls are, as measured by our RCP
Poll Average, and the trend
in the national polls.
3)
How the state voted in 1996 and, in particular, 2000. (Taking
into account any unique circumstances that may have had
an influence on past results, such as Gore's status as a
"favorite son" in Tennessee in 2000.)
4)
How the state has been trending politically in national
elections.
5)
Miscellaneous circumstances that may apply to a particular
state this election cycle. (i.e. a big Governor or Senate
race, hot ballot initiatives like gay marriage, state-wide
scandals, local disasters or emergencies.)
This
is why we can rate a state like Colorado as "Leaning
Bush," even though the two most recent polls indicate
only a one point lead for the President. On the other hand,
we're keeping New Jersey as "Leaning Kerry" even
though recent polling
suggest that the state might be coming into play. Similarly,
Oregon and Iowa remain in the "toss up" category
despite the fact that the some recent polls show the President
ahead.
STATE
POLLS : We have discontinued the use of partisan
polls and Internet aided polls in our state averages. We
had been using Strategic Vision and Zogby Interactive polls
through the summer, primarily because in many states there
just wasn't much public polling information. However, with
under six weeks until the election there are more than enough
independent polls in the major battleground states. J.
McIntyre 8:27 am Link
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