If the election
is indeed put on hold until next March there is no question it
benefits Governor Davis. That is not to say Davis would be a lock
to survive the recall next year, just that his chances of survival
would be significantly higher. If the election still proceeds
this October it's hard to predict how this turn of events will
affect the outcome. I suspect a lot will depend on how
the decision is reversed. Let's see how this shakes out this week.
UPSETTING:
Florida 2000, New Jersey 2002, California 2003. This trend
is not a good omen for the future of elections in this country
and elections, by the way, happen to be an important part of any
successful democracy. The judges on these respective courts need
to do some real soul searching and ask themselves whether the
short-term political gain they may achieve by twisting and perverting
the laws and the election rules is really in the long-term best
interest of our nation. I'm not holding my breath. J.
McIntyre 6:50 am
Monday,
September 15, 2003
THIS WEEK: Tom is on a well deserved vacation this week
so the blog may be a little light.
CALIFORNIA:
Little has changed in this race over the last two weeks; we
still feel Schwarzenegger is likely to be the next governor of
California. Ueberroth bowed out as expected, and if McClintock
concedes to Arnold before election day, Schwarzenegger will win
easily. However, right now the odds seem to favor McClintock going
the distance.
McClintock's
decision will truly decide whether this becomes a cakewalk coronation
for Arnold or a late-night nail-biter, a toss-up between Davis,
Bustamante and Schwarzenegger for who will be the Governor. While
McClintock's remaining in the race certainly keeps Bustamente's
chances alive, what it really does is give Governor Davis a legitimate
hope that he might be able to survive the first question on the
ballot.
Though we
don't put a lot of stock in any one poll the trend in the same
poll is valuable in monitoring which way the electorate is leaning.
While we are skeptical of the raw numbers in the most recent LA
Times poll, we feel the trend from their previous poll is an accurate
reflection of the voters. Schwarzenegger gaining 3%, Bustamante
losing 5%, McClintock gaining 6% and Davis picking up 2% all jives
with where we think the race is heading.
Bustamente's
decline and Davis' small uptick makes complete sense as Democrats
and independents are starting to realize Bustamente would be a
disaster as Governor and Davis ultimately has a better shot at
surviving the recall than Bustamente does of squeaking out a victory.
The odds of a Governor Bustamente appear very slim to us, as he
needs three things to happen to win. First, McClintock has to
stay in until the end, probably a 50-50 proposition. Second, Davis
has to lose the recall vote, we'd actually give the edge to Davis
surviving if Bustamente is looking strong right before the election.
And third, he obviously has to beat Arnold which we feel is 50-50
at best, even with McClintock in the race. So, you put all these
together and you see why we don't expect a Governor Bustamente
next year.
McClintock
obviously remains the wild card and the Democrats' fervent hope
is he stays strong until the very end, allowing Bustamente the
chance to squeak through. Though as we mentioned above, Davis
would probably survive in this scenario. However, even if McClintock
stays in we still feel the the most likely scenario is effectively
a race between Schwarzenegger and Davis, as a general consensus
emerges that Bustamente is a loser. And the prevailing disgust
with the current economic and political situation in the state
places Davis at a distinct disadvantage and is ultimately why
it is likely Schwarzenegger will be the next Governor of California.
J.
McIntyre 6:34 am
