Friday,
August 6 2004
BAD JOB NEWS FOR BUSH: Today's jobs
report release for July is bad
news for the Bush campaign because it calls in to question
the sustainability of the economic recovery.
Employment
growth in the U.S. stalled dramatically last month, according
to the Labor Department, with the economy adding just
32,000 nonfarm jobs, well short of economists' estimates.
The weak reading, which followed June's anemic 112,000-job
gain, sent stock futures reeling and bond prices rallying.
A single
month of disappointing job numbers can be written off as
a statistical aberration, however a second consecutive month
of very disappointing job growth, coupled with job revisions
downward for May and June, certainly calls into question
the underlying strength of the economy.
Saving
graces for the White House are that the report at least
showed job growth and not job losses, and the unemployment
rate dipped to 5.5%. These two factors coupled with the
very strong job growth in the household survey will give
the Bush campaign some PR ammunition to blunt the underlying
negative news in this job report.
With
only two more reports to be released before the election,
next month's jobs report now takes on a much higher level
of importance. And if the August report, released the day
after Bush's acceptance speech in NYC, underperforms
to the same extent as this report or actually shows job
losses, the Bush campaign is going to have a very difficult
time suggesting that everything is all roses with the economy.
On
the other hand, if next month's number comes in with decent
growth or surpasses expectations it should neutralize the
potential for the Democrats to make headway in attacking
the President on job growth. The U.S. economy is like the
largest supertanker you can possibly imagine, and even if
the economy is truly weakening, the perception that
it is weakening will probably not become apparent to the
public until well after the election.
Next
month's report has huge significance in that regard because
a good report will allow for credible arguments that the
June and July numbers were simply blips in a steadily improving
job market. However, a third consecutive subpar job number
will give the Democrats, the Kerry campaign and the press
plenty of ammunition with which to attack the President.
J. McIntyre 9:03 am Link
| Email
| Send
to a Friend
