Wednesday,
July 7 2004
A TALE OF TWO JOHNS: The more I think about John
Kerry's choice of John Edwards yesterday, the more I wonder
if the Dems aren't in a bit of trouble.
First,
consider what Kerry gains from picking Edwards: youth, enthusiasm,
and a bit of sizzle (to use the Wall
Street Journal's phrase). All important things for a
campaign, to be sure, but nothing substantive.
Liberal
pundits who favor the Edwards pick also argue that Kerry
gains a surrogate who can "reconnect" with rural
and working class voters in the Rust and Bible belts. Or
as Bob
Kuttner condescendingly put it in today's Boston Globe,
Edwards will be able to "enlist culturally conservative,
white, working class voters who may be gun-toting, abortion-hating,
Arab-bashing, tub-thumping fundamentalists." And people
wonder why Democrats ever lost touch with this constituency.
Edwards
is a very likable guy and it's probably true that he will
generate a connection - either real or imagined - with some
rural and working class voters. Whether he can pass
that connection on to John Kerry is another matter altogether.
In the end voters will still have to look up at the top
of the ticket and pull the lever for an aloof, patrician
New Englander as their choice to run the country.
The
other thing Kerry assumes by picking John Edwards is his
"Two Americas" message. Granted, it's a lot better
than Kerry's brand of class warfare populism, and it will
unburden Kerry from dealing with those overzealous
speechwriters who keep forcing him to use the phrase
"Benedict Arnold CEO's." Still, it's class warfare
nonetheless and it's now going to be a
central theme of the Kerry campaign.
Now
match these gains from picking Edwards against the biggest
issues in this election: Iraq and the economy, in that order.
Both are improving, and that's bad news for any Democratic
ticket, no matter who's on it.
But
what Kerry's pick indicates to me most is that he still
doesn't get it. The ghosts of 9/11 and national security
are going to loom large in this election and by selecting
Edwards, Kerry is essentially saying he thinks he's fine
on the issue of national security. He isn't, and his 20-year
voting record proves it.
Liberals
are fawning over Kerry's for having the "courage"
to pick someone as charismatic as Edwards as a tacit acknowledgment
that Kerry recognizes his weakness as an aloof, stand-offish
personality. And he is both of these things.
Kerry's
true weakness, however, isn't so much his personality as
it is his position on national security. There are indications
he recognized this weakness as well (flirtations with McCain,
Biden, Cohen, Clark, et al), but in the end Kerry decided
likeability was more important than enhancing his credibility
on national security.
Maybe
this will end up being a smart political decision on Kerry's
part. People do want to like their president. I happen to
think it's a mistake, not only because it's a longshot to
think John Edwards is going to have enough charisma for
the both of them, but because after 9/11 people want a leader
whose top priority is protecting the country. T.
Bevan 7:36 am Link
| Email |
Send
to a Friend
Last
Week's Blog
