Friday,
July 30 2004
THE KERRY MOMENT: John Kerry didn't hurt his chances
of becoming president last night. Problem is, I don't think
he helped them very much either. What I saw was a man rushing
through a rather long speech, as if he knew he had to get
it all crammed into prime time lest he be cut off before
the big finish.
Time
and again Kerry plowed right over the audience applauding
his best lines. There was hardly any ebb or flow to the
speech; no place to catch one's breath, no moment where
Kerry took his foot off the gas to try and slow down and
get intimate with America. From about two minutes in, Kerry
was full throated and full throttle, and the effort and
pace at which he spoke showed in the way he began to perspire
and his voice seemed to grow more and more strained toward
the end.
As
far as content goes, there's really only one question worth
asking: did John Kerry convince enough moderates and independents
that he is a credible alternative to the current Commander
in Chief? For the moment I think the answer is "yes."
But I also don't think it's an impression that will last.
John
Kerry may have surrounded himself with veterans last night
and said the right words about strengthening the military
and fighting terror, but over the next three months the
public is going to learn a great deal about Kerry's record
that is at odds with the impression he tried to create last
night.
The
biggest mistake of the entire convention was not running
the Kerry biographical video in prime time. It was brilliant.
The footage of Kerry fighting in Vietnam was mixed superbly
with clips that made him seem funny, warm, and strong. It
was a powerful piece of propaganda - much more so than Kerry's
actual speech - and most Americans never got a chance to
see it.
Ditto
Kerry's daughters, who I thought both did a wonderful job
of opening an attractive, empathetic window through which
people could view their father. Even Max Cleland gave a
strong introduction that would have made a positive impression
on voters.
In
other words, one of the biggest problems last night is that
America saw too much of John Kerry in person. Instead of
speaking for 46 minutes, Kerry would have been much better
off to speak for half that and to have used the video, his
daughters, and Max Cleland and his shipmates as surrogates
and character witnesses.
The
irony is that the Kerry campaign already knows all of this.
It's the strategy they've been using for the last nine months,
ever since Mary Beth Cahill showed up to administer CPR
to Kerry's presidential bid late last year. The simple truth
is that others
do a better job of selling John Kerry than John Kerry does
of selling himself.
Last
night the Kerry campaign decided to change the formula.
The result is that Kerry's hour in prime time was not nearly
as effective as it could have been.
Of
the five major speeches at the convention this year I'd
have to say Kerry's speech ranks fourth behind Obama, Clinton,
and Edwards. The only person Kerry performed better than
was his wife. But again, I don't think Kerry hurt his chances
last night so much as he
missed an opportunity to really put the pressure on
President Bush.
We'll
have to wait and see what the polls say. Zogby
is out this morning with a poll taken July 26-29 showing
a 5-point lead for Kerry.
Five
points in the head-to-head race seems to me to be the break
even point for the Kerry campaign, so keep
your eye on the RCP Average. If Kerry and Edwards aren't
averaging at least a 5-point lead in this next round of
post-convention polls, I suspect you'll see the optimism
and confidence of the Democrats start to give way to doubt.
- T. Bevan 8:55 am Link
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