Friday,
July 23 2004
THE VANISHING BOUNCE: Big poll day yesterday, with
some really disturbing news for John Kerry. As you can see
from the table below, of the four new polls released yesterday
afternoon/evening Kerry lost ground to Bush in three of
them and is now back to dead even in the three-way race:
| Poll |
Date |
3-Way
Results |
Net
Chg
vs. Last Poll |
| Fox
News |
7/20-7/21 |
Bush
+1 |
Kerry
+6 |
| NBC/WSJ |
7/19-7/21 |
Bush
+2 |
Bush
+1 |
| CNN/Gallup/USAT |
7/19-7/21 |
Kerry
+1 |
Bush
+4 |
|
|
7/17-7/21 |
Kerry
+2 |
Bush
+4 |
Bottom
line: on the eve of the Democratic convention the bounce
from the Edwards pick two and a half weeks ago has come
and gone. The fact Kerry couldn't maintain a even a small
lead heading into the DNC has to have his staff (and Bush-haters
everywhere) reaching for the Pepto.
The other important number, Bush's overall
job approval, is rising slightly as well:
Our
RCP average, which includes all
of these current polls along with Rasmussen, shows Bush
ticking up to an even 49% approval. Again, not good news
for Kerry heading into the convention.
Those favoring John Kerry seem to be taking
heart at some of the internals in these polls. Check out
the reaction over at Daily
Kos and Donkey
Rising.
It's
funny, if not a little bit pathetic, that the poll analysis
we get from Ron
Brownstein in the LA Times this morning differs little
from the spin at those partisan web sites. And let's not
forget to mention this laugher from the AP earlier in the
week:
New
Poll Smiles on Kerry
Despite Tie, Momentum is With Democrat
The Associated Press
Updated: 7:13 p.m. ET July 21, 2004
NANTUCKET, Mass. - John Kerry is heading
to his party’s national convention with Democrats
faring better with the public on both domestic and international
issues, according to a poll released Wednesday. But Kerry
remains locked in a tie in the presidential race.
In
addition to being eerily prescient, John's
post from yesterday was dead on. The press is almost
openly rooting for Kerry and the Democrats, after getting
a boost from the primary process coupled with the continued
struggle in Iraq and a small bounce from the Edwards pick,
are finally believing for the first time they have a chance
to win.
Both
continue to interpret the deadlocked race in the best possible
way for John Kerry and ignore any evidence indicating there
is another side to the coin: the deadlock may actually display
an underlying strength for Bush.
With the vaunted veep bounce having already
evaporated into the ether, the pressure on Kerry to deliver
a big convention this week just increased dramatically.
He and his fellow Dems need to hit it out of the park.
Otherwise,
they will find themselves in the unenviable position of
trying to come from behind after Labor Day. Most likely,
this means Kerry will need either 1) a knock out in the
debates (something that rarely happens, even despite Gore's
implosion in 2000) or 2) some unpredictable event like a
terrorist attack (which is more likely to cause a rally
for Bush) or 3) Iraq to descend into complete and utter
chaos or 4) an October Surprise of some kind involving Bush
and/or prominent members of his administration.
0
FOR 8?: Frank Foer writes up a lengthy,
but very worthwhile profile of Bob Shrum attempting
to answer the question political junkies have been pondering
for years: why is anyone still willing to hire this guy?
My absolute favorite, however, is the description
of the tight bond that has developed between Kerry and his
populist consigliere:
Their relationship now transcends
politics. "They talk about food, wine, European travel,
and ideas," says one Democratic operative.
Which
one of the "two Americas" do you think these guys
belong to? - T. Bevan 11:45 am Link
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