Friday, June 25, 2004
KERRY SLIPS: Prompted by the Harris poll showing a ten point lead for President Bush among likely voters I speculated that the Normandy commemoration, the G-8 Summit, the formation of the new government in Iraq, the unanimous UN Security Council resolution and Reagan's death had perhaps provided a turning point in the race. Since then we have seen the release of three major polls (ABC News/Wash Post, CNN/Gallup/USA Today, FOX News/Opinion Dynamics) two of which support the contention there has been real movement towards the President, one which does not.

ABC/WP's poll indicated a four point shift towards Kerry among registered voters. Their poll from May 20-23 had the race tied 46%-46%, this week's poll taken June 17-20 has Kerry ahead 48%-44%. However, Gallup's poll showed a seven point swing towards President Bush among likely voters. Their poll from June 5-8 showed Kerry ahead 50%-44%, while the poll taken June 21-23 has Bush ahead 49%-48%. The FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows the same seven point move towards President Bush. Their poll from June 8-9 had the race tied at 42%, the new poll taken June 22-23 has Bush ahead 47%-40%.

From a time standpoint the the ABC/WP isn't the same type of apple-to-apple comparison, since their previous poll was taken May 20-23, as opposed to the FOX & Gallup polls which were both taken in early June. But the FOX & Gallup polls do provide strong evidence that Bush has gained support from the first week in June. From a results standpoint all three lead to slightly different conclusions as Gallup suggests the race is tied, ABC/WP gives Kerry a 4-8 point lead, while FOX shows Bush ahead 6-7 points.

With FOX reporting a seven point lead for Bush suddenly Harris' 10-point Bush lead doesn't seem like such an outlier. In fact, when you look at RCP's 3-way poll page, it is the ABC/Wash Post poll that stands out as the only poll in the last eight that doesn't show Bush ahead.

I said after Kerry captured the nomination that these polls were going to bounce around and it would be a mistake to get caught up in a blip one way or the other (barring one side being able to establish a five plus point lead for more than a week). And I think that is still good advice until we get through Kerry's VP selection, the Boston convention and then the 9/11 anniversary and the GOP convention in New York.

But if I were a Kerry strategist I would not be feeling too hot right now. The idea parroted by the NY Times earlier this week, that Bush's TV barrage was more or less ineffectual is pure spin. The Bush ad assault on Kerry has had exactly the intended effect. You can see it in the unfavorable ratings where Kerry, in the FOX poll, has a higher unfavorable rating at 43% compared to Bush's 41%. Gallup and ABC/WP didn't have favorability results, but even if they are 4-7 points worse for Bush, for Kerry to have such high unfavorables is bad news. [LATE UPDATE: Gallup did have an unfavorable number on Kerry, it is 35%, eight points better than FOX's number.] Bush's high unfavorables make some sense given the polarization in the country and the fact he has been President for 3 1/2 years. Kerry on the other hand is a relative newcomer to the national scene and it is very bad news for him to have a higher unfavorability rating than President Bush. And make no mistake about it those unfavorable numbers are a direct result of the Bush ad campaign.

Other bad news for Kerry is the President's job approval appears to have stabilized in the high 40's. And results from the National Annenberg Election Survey of 1431 adults taken June 8 - June 21 give President Bush a 52% job approval. These type of job approval numbers aren't going to get it done for the Democrats, Kerry is going to need to see the President's job approval fall below 45% to have a real shot at winning this fall.

With the economy continuing to chug along and job growth finally flowing through the business pipeline, Kerry is left hoping for utter chaos in Iraq. Like I said at the beginning of the week at some point the day after day coverage of how awful it is in Iraq reaches a saturation point where all the bad news effectively gets "priced in." So even if Iraq remains an unstable mess, the media's relentless negativism has in many ways prepared the public for the worst. Which means we may have seen the bottom in the President's job approval a couple of weeks ago, and if that is the case Kerry is in big trouble. J. McIntyre 7:48 am Link | Email | Send to a Friend

More RCP Commentary