Friday,
April 22 2005
CARVILLE, BEGALA & THE CULTURE WARS: Despite all
the tactical advice dished out by James Carville and Paul Begala
in this
USA Today op-ed (most of which I agree with) one sentence
at the beginning of the piece struck me as the 800-lb gorilla
sitting in the political war room: "Sure, we'd like it
if Democrats were seen as the party of faith, family and the flag."
Really? Reputations
rarely come undeserved, and this one is no exception. The reason
Democrats aren't seen as the party of faith, family and the flag
is because they've pursued social policies over the past forty
years that many have come to view as antithetical to those values;
militant secularism, abortion on demand, and a general dislike
and/or distrust of the U.S. military stretching all the way back
to Vietnam. Even though Carville and Begala suggest it's time
for Democrats to "change everything," they don't make
a single mention of what the party can do to alter this perception
with the public - other than just wishing it were so.
The fact
is, it's very hard to talk about a Democratic party resurgence
without discussing social and cultural issues. Polls show that
Democrats continue to retain traditional advantages with voters
on domestic issues like healthcare and education. Where Democrats
fail with voters - aside from the crucial issue of national security
- is when it comes to issues of culture, faith, and family. This
is no small matter, because these are among the most influential
factors in determining how people vote.
Democrats
continue to grapple with the electoral problems presented by this
cultural disconnect: the South is now close to barren ground for
them politically - so much so that some have openly suggested
writing it off at the national level altogether. The disconnect
is also seeping into other vital constituencies as well: in 2004
Democrats saw an erosion of support among Hispanics and African-Americans,
at least some of which was driven by cultural issues like gay
marriage.
So what's
the fix? The first thing Democrats should do is to stop putting
on such ridiculous expressions of public piety. If I hear John
Kerry or Howard Dean quoting the Bible one more time I swear I'm
going to puke. To win votes Democrats don't have to try and pass
themselves off as deeply religious, they just need to stop being
actively hostile toward people who are.
I would expand
this point to say that the fastest way Democrats could shed their
minority status is to step back from being aggressive antagonists
in the culture wars and recast themselves with a distinctly libertarian
approach. The message, were I to craft it for them, would be simple
and consistent:
Democrats
stand for effective, efficient government that exists to protect
America and provide opportunity for all of our citizens.
We
respect religion and value faith as a deeply private matter.
Government should not be in the business of religion.
We
respect the rights of women to make decisions concerning their
own bodies, whatever those decisions might be. It is a private
matter where the government has no place.
We
respect the rights of adults to engage in consensual sexual
relationships. These are private matters where government does
not belong.
Of course,
this would require Democrats to take a much more agnostic stance
on abortion and gay marriage, which is arguably like trying to
get a leopard to change its spots. But again, Democrats need not
abandon all support for their current positions. What they must
do, however, is demonstrate a level of respect for faith, family
and flag and then carve those issues out as private matters that
are distinct from the business of paving potholes and protecting
the country.
BIZARRO
HUGH: Ever see the
"bizarro" episode of Seinfeld? It's the one where
Elaine meets three friends who look similar to - but whose behavior
is the complete opposite of - Jerry, George and Kramer.
Well I'm
fairly certain that Baltasar
Garzon, the judge currently presiding over the trial of suspected
9/11 terrorist in Spain, is the bizarro version of Hugh Hewitt:
Garzon is
a socialist who fought to extradite Augusto Pinochet from London
to try him for human rights abuses and a guy who called the U.S.-led
War in Iraq a unilateral "act of madness."Like I said:
the bizarro Hugh. - T. Bevan 8:45 am Link
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Wednesday,
April 20 2005
NUCLEAR OPTION MELTDOWN: It's a shame we've come to this
point in the battle over judges. Not necessarily a surprise, but
a shame nonetheless. The main reason for the showdown, of course,
is because Democrats have gone way over the line in using the
filibuster in an unprecedented and abusive way.
What's frustrating,
however, is that I can't help but think part of the reason we
are where we are is because the Republican leadership has mismanaged
the public relations part of the battle. This should not be a
tough sell to the American people, folks.
Most people
would agree that at the very least these judicial nominees deserve
a simple up and down vote. It's a basic issue of fairness. Most
people would probably also agree - or could easily be persuaded
to agree - with the view that the Democrats, who are doing something
never before done in the history of the country, are the extremists
here.
Yet neither
of these arguments has been brought to bear with the general public
in any meaningful way. I suspect the average American (who either
hasn't followed the debate very closely or hasn't followed it
at all) is reading the newspaper or watching television and buying
into the notion that Republicans are the ones being "drastic"
and "abusive."
So why aren't
we seeing a broad-based public relations effort making the Republicans'
case to the American people? Where are the ads, the panels, the
protests, and other headline-grabbing stunts that could be used
to draw attention to the issue?
Don't get
me wrong. I understand some of this type of stuff has been taking
place. I also understand that it's extremely tough to reach the
public through a mainstream media filter that is ideologically
inclined to block or distort the message.
Still, if
the issue is so important (which it unquestionably is) you would
have expected a full-bore media campaign of commensurate value
that would work to swing the debate the GOP's way. It certainly
doesn't feel like that's what we've gotten.
Instead,
it feels as if we've skipped over a couple of steps and are now
standing on the edge of the abyss, about to plunge forward with
a vote of enormous political consequence. And with all due respect
to those
who feel confident this scenario will play out favorably for the
Republicans, a reasonable case can be made that this vote
will end up a disaster for the GOP.
This is doubly
frustrating because the math also works in the Republicans' favor.
There are more red-state Democrats at risk over this issue than
blue-state Republicans. Yet instead of having Senators like Ben
Nelson, Ken Salazar, and the rest on the defensive, it's moderate
Republicans like John Warner, Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe
who are getting pounded - from both sides.
Read this
article in today's New York Times and you'll see
that many of the Republican moderates still on the fence fully
agree that Democrats are way out of line. It's not hard to see
that they would be more than willing to pull the trigger on this
vote if the Republican party leadership had done a better job
laying the ground work and driving public opinion on the issue.
The bottom line is that not enough effort was made to give these
Senators the cover they need to make this vote.
At this point,
it's all water under the bridge. We'll know soon enough whether
Senator Frist can muster the votes. Still, I think the Republican
leadership has exposed the party to needless political risk by
not doing an effective job of framing this debate with the American
public.
ROSSI
WOULD WIN: So says this story from the Seattle
PI:
Without
ballots cast by felons, dead voters and non-citizens, Democratic
Gov. Christine Gregoire would have lost the 2004 election to
Republican Dino Rossi by about 100 votes, according to a statistical
report cited by the GOP in its legal challenge to Gregoire's
victory.
Later in
the story we learn that according to state law Rossi must do more
than prove that enough "improper" ballots were cast
to give him a victory, he must prove that Gregoire owes her victory
to "illegal" votes. Different standard. We'll see what
the judge decides.
By the way,
if you aren't already visiting our
political news page, you should start
today. - T. Bevan 11:45 am Link
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Tuesday,
April 19 2005
THE QUOTE OF THE DAY: The award goes to Senator
Dianne Feinstein from her appearance on Hardball
last night discussing religion and judges:
"Criticizing
the court because you don't agree with the decision I don't
think gets you anywhere. The courts are supposed to be independent.
We're supposed to do our job and they interpret what we do.
If they find it unconstitutional, there's room to appeal and
go up to the Supreme Court. And that's always been a
final and respected judgment.
I would
hate to see that change, because it's really the first step
toward doing away, I think, with or weakening a democracy that
has been a very good thing for this nation over the past 200
years."
I actually
like Dianne Feinstein and count her among a depressingly small
group of reasonably moderate Senate Democrats. Nevertheless, this
is quite a revelation coming from a Senator whose party just spent
four solid years trashing the Supreme Court. It's a little hard
for me to warm up to this newfound concern for the weakening of
our democracy after Democratic party leaders and activists have
made such a habit of running around waving a bloody shirt and
calling President Bush illegitimate.
PLAY
ALONG WITH NEWT: Most people seem to think Newt Gingrich
is milking the rumor of a presidential bid to sell books, but
let's go ahead and play
along anyway:
Gingrich's
aides insist the rush of 2008 speculation is premature, but
they are quick to add that their boss, who has a loyal national
following who would relish a match with Hillary Clinton, won't
shut the door on a presidential run.
``The
answer is we don't know,'' said Gingrich spokesman Rick Tyler.
``The speaker hasn't ruled it out.''
That's almost
exactly the same thing Newt said 100
days ago. (Just as a point of reference, that's only 21 days
longer than John
Kerry has been stonewalling on signing Form 180).
One guy who
isn't playing along with Newt is Robert Novak. When asked by Mark
Shields on The Capital Gang this weekend whether Gingrich would
have legitimate shot at the nomination, Novak
replied:
"I'm
not going to say he doesn't have a chance but, boy, it seems
to be very unlikely to me. I've been talking to a lot of Republicans
since this came and they just say, 'Ah, what are you talking
about, Newt Gingrich?'
Twenty seconds
later when E.J. Dionne said that some in Washington were approaching
the idea of a 2008 Newt run with "some seriousness,"
Novak interjected: "Who's taking him seriously? I haven't
found anybody." Ouch.
IT'S
MILLER TIME : Lee Hawkins Jr. of the Wall St. Journal
recently visited a General Motors plant in Janesville, Wisconsin
where he reported on the automaker's struggle to cope with spiraling
health care costs. In addition to health issues caused by obesity
and smoking, Hawkins spent some time visiting with the owner of
Zachow's, a tavern located less than one hundred yards from the
plant's main entrance:
Mr.
Zachow said workers don't get drunk when they hit his bar during
breaks. "They only have less than a half-hour for
their breaks. If they can get two or three beers down, that's
about it," Mr. Zachow said. "It's fast and
furious. And they get a little exercise walking over.
The bar is in a good place. If they were going down
to the other bar down the street, they'd have to go down a whole
mile."
Three beers
in less than thirty minutes? That's frat-house style drinking.
It also makes me think that maybe John Edwards was right: there
really are "two Americas." Because unlike the boys at
GM, Ted Kennedy gets at least two hours to knock back three drinks
at lunch. - T. Bevan 11:45 am Link
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