Saturday, November 6 2004
NO, THANK YOU: We've been flooded with emails thanking us for our election coverage this year. We're going to try to respond to them all in due time, but since that might take a while I wanted to throw up a quick post to let people know how much we truly appreciate the support. It's been an incredibly long and intense year in the world of politics and it's been our pleasure to be a part of it and to add whatever we've been able to add to the process. We'd like to thank everyone who visited RCP, sent us emails, contributed to our efforts, referred us to friends, and supported the site in so many other various ways.

DAMN YOU, WISCONSIN!: We fell just short of perfection in our electoral college prediction this year thanks to 13,646 more Cheeseheads in Wisconsin voting for John Kerry than George Bush. I'll remember that next time I catch a game at Lambert Field.

Seriously, what is interesting about the result in Wisconsin this year is that it marks only the third time since 1928 that Wisconsin and Iowa have split their vote at the federal level.

In 1940, Iowa went for Republican Wendell Willkie by four points while Wisconsin went for FDR by only two. In 1976, Iowa stuck with Gerald Ford by a one point margin and Wisconsin went to Jimmy Carter by two points. Obviously, in all three instances Wisconsin has favored the Democrat and Iowa the Republican, and never the other way around.

The similarity in presidential voting patterns of these two states is even more pronounced if you just look the last four cycles:

State	1992	1996	2000	2004
IA	Clinton +6.0	Clinton +10.4	Gore +0.3	Bush +0.9
WI	Clinton +4.3	Clinton +10.3	Gore +0.2	Kerry +0.4

Add up the difference between the spread in these two states' voting results over the last four presidential elections and it's only 3.2%. That is simply amazing. Our final polling averages had both states going ever so slightly for Bush, and because of the history I was almost certain they would indeed fall together. Then again, that's why they play the game.

BROOKS IS THE MAN: David Brooks is one of the finest writers in America. He also happens to be one of the most astute watchers of politics and culture in the country. Today's column is a perfect example. Brooks explodes the furious post-election cocoon building we're seeing by liberals to try and rationalize away the significance of what happened on Tuesday:

But the same insularity that caused many liberals to lose touch with the rest of the country now causes them to simplify, misunderstand and condescend to the people who voted for Bush. If you want to understand why Democrats keep losing elections, just listen to some coastal and university town liberals talk about how conformist and intolerant people in Red America are. It makes you wonder: why is it that people who are completely closed-minded talk endlessly about how open-minded they are?

Indeed, if I were forced to pick one person to blame the Democrats' loss on Tuesday it wouldn't be John Kerry. I'd choose Michael Moore.

Moore certainly did a good job of using the anti-Bush anger on the left to sell movie tickets and make himself rich. In the process he became the de facto figurehead of the anti-Bush left and the Democrats' biggest mistake was allowing him inside the major party structure and making him a star at the DNC (not to mention attending the screening of F911 on Capitol Hill). In the end, it's impossible to quantify how much Moore helped motivate Democrats to turnout - or if he even helped at all.

On the other hand, I think Moore did a tremendous job at helping mobilize Republicans this year. You only have to think back to John McCain's speech at the RNC when he made a passing reference to Moore as "a disingenuous film maker." The roar inside Madison Square Garden was immediate and intense.

Republicans across the country went to the polls on Tuesday with an anger of their own. The increased turnout wasn't driven by some right-wing bigotry toward gays (as Brooks points out) but I believe a bitterness toward people like Michael Moore. Middle America was simply pissed off at listening to a fat schlub like Michael Moore and his ilk on the far left tell them how oppressive, greedy, militaristic, and imperialistic we are as a country and what a liar and a moron our President is.

And yet John Kerry still only lost the presidency by 130,000 votes in Ohio. The fact is Kerry ran a good campaign and made the most of what he had to work with. He glossed over his antiwar past, took full advantage of the debates, and made smart tactical decisions in allocating his resources. But the Democrats embrace of radical left over the past 24 months - from Howard Dean through Michael Moore - infuriated enough Republicans across the country, but especially in a place like Ohio, to overwhelm the Democratic turnout machine and give George W. Bush another four years in the White House.- T. Bevan 7:30 am Link | Email | Send to a Friend