Monday,
November 1 2004
THREE GENERAL TRENDS: Where do things stand one
day before the election? Very, very close. The national
horse race numbers have gotten extremely tight, including
a couple of polls in particular that don't bode well for
President Bush. Gallup and Fox News (as of this morning)
have shown movement toward John Kerry in the final days
and now have the race dead even.
But
as we've been loading all the various internal numbers from
these polls into our averages I've gotten the sense there
is another story, one which would seem on the surface to
be much more in President Bush's favor.
Start
with the generic Congressional vote. Right now the RCP
Average has Republicans with a 0.5% advantage. If you
track the change in each poll individually, with the exception
of Gallup the movement seems to be favoring the GOP:
| Generic
Vote |
Latest
|
Last
|
Net
Chg |
| CNN/USAT/Gallup |
Dem
+1
(10/31) |
GOP
+3
(10/24) |
Dem
+4 |
| NBC/WSJ |
Dem
+1
(10/31) |
Dem
+4
(9/19) |
GOP
+3 |
| Battleground |
GOP
+2
(10/31) |
Dem
+1
( 10/28) |
GOP
+3 |
| Newsweek |
GOP
+5
(10/29) |
GOP+1
(10/22) |
GOP
+4 |
| Democracy
Corps (D) |
Dem
+2
(10/31) |
Dem
+9
(10/25) |
GOP+7 |
In
2002, there was a dramatic move toward the GOP in the final
days before the midterm election which was a harbinger of
a big night for Republicans. This year the move is much
smaller, and it isn't clear at all whether any favorable
momentum in the generic congressional vote will benefit
President Bush. It could very well be that Republicans have
a good night on Tuesday in a lot of places - except at the
top of the ticket. Nevertheless, movement toward the GOP
is obviously more beneficial for President Bush than seeing
the polls move against his party in the final days.
Now
look at the latest right track/wrong track numbers:
| Right
Track/Wrong Track |
Latest
|
Last
|
Net
Chg |
| Marist |
-8
(10/31) |
-10
(10/19) |
+2 |
| CNN/USAT/Gallup
(RV) |
-9
(10/31) |
-14
(10/14) |
+5 |
| NBC/WSJ |
-6
(10/31) |
-9
(10/18) |
+3 |
| CBS/NYT |
-4
(10/30) |
-18
( 10/17) |
+14 |
| Battleground |
-11
(10/31) |
-12
( 10/28) |
+1 |
| Newsweek |
-17
(10/29) |
-16
(10/22) |
-1 |
| Democracy
Corps (D) |
-6
(10/31) |
-11
(10/25) |
+5 |
With
only one exception (Newsweek), the polls show people are
generally feeling better about the direction of the country.
The current
RCP Right Track/Wrong Track spread stands at -8.0%,
which is the first time it's been under negative double
digits in quite some time.
I think
it's widely accepted that the RT/WT number this year isn't
as tightly correlated to the national popular vote as we've
seen in the past. Because of the war in Iraq, terrorism
and cultural issues like gay marriage, there is a certain
level of anxiety in the country and even supporters of President
Bush may respond that they feel like we're headed in the
wrong direction.
Still,
this question is usually asked among respondents using the
loosest possible screen (either all adults or registered
voters) so it does gauge the general mood of the country
and it's certainly better for President Bush that the RT/WT
number is improving heading into tomorrow as opposed to
going in the other direction.
Lastly,
look at Bush's job approval. Fifty percent is generally
recognized as the "magic number" on job approval
for incumbents to win reelection. As most of you know, this
is because the job approval number traditionally correlates
most closely with the candidate's final popular vote total.
It also just makes common sense: a majority of the country
is probably not going to vote a person out of office if
they think that person is doing a decent job as President.
Right
now the RCP Average
of the 8 most recent polls taken over the last 5 days shows
President Bush right on the cusp: 49.8%.
Among
all job approval numbers, Gallup is generally seen as the
"gold standard." In their final poll they have
Bush at 51% job approval among likely voters but only 48%
among registered voters.
But
again, it's important to look at the change in these polls
relative to each other to get a feel for which direction
Bush's job approval number is heading:
| Bush
Job Approval |
Latest
|
Last
|
Net
Chg |
| Marist |
50
(10/31) |
49
(10/19) |
+1 |
| CNN/USAT/Gallup
(LV) |
51
(10/31) |
54
(10/24) |
-3 |
| NBC/WSJ |
49
(10/31) |
49
(10/18) |
nc |
| Battleground |
53
(10/31) |
53
( 10/28) |
nc |
| CBS/NYT |
49
(10/30) |
44
( 10/17) |
+5 |
| Newsweek |
46
(10/29) |
46
(10/22) |
nc |
| FOX
News |
49
(10/28) |
49
(10/18) |
nc |
| Democracy
Corps (D) |
49
(10/31) |
48
(10/25) |
+1 |
With
the exception of Gallup (which as previously mentioned is
a pretty big exception), Bush's job approval has held steady
or increased across the other seven polls taken recently.
Again, this may or may not be indicative of tomorrow's outcome,
but as a general trend the President's job approval numbers
seem to be working slightly in his favor.
I'll
finish with the traditional caveats about these being national
numbers (as opposed to key battleground state numbers) with
small sample sizes, blah, blah, blah. Certainly this race
will be won or lost in the trenches of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin, and the rest. But the to the extent we can use
national polls as pieces of the overall picture and tools
to find threads of commonality in the dynamics of this race,
these three trends look favorable for President Bush despite
the tightening in some of the horse race numbers. -
T. Bevan 10:00 am Link
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