Thursday, November 11 2004
IT'S NEVER TOO SOON: I know we're all still recouping from last week, but for political junkies it's never too soon to sneak a peek at the next fix. Before we get to the races in 2006, remember that we will have Governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia on deck in 2005.

In 2006 there will be 36 Gubernatorial and 33 Senate races on the ballot. Here are the lists:

Gubernatorial Races (36)
State	Republicans (22)	State	Democrats (14)
AL	Riley	AZ	Napolitano
AK	Murkowski	IL	Blagojevich
AR	Trm Ltd/Open	IA	Vilsack
CA	Schwarzenegger	KS	Sebelius
CO	Trm Ltd/Open	ME	Baldacci
CT	Rell	MI	Granholm
FL	Trm Ltd/Open	NH*	Lynch
GA	Perdue	NM	Richardson
HI	Lingle	OK	Henry
ID	Trm Ltd/Open	OR	Kulongowski
MD	Ehrlich	PA	Rendell
MA	Romney	TN	Bredesen
MN	Pawlenty	WI	Doyle
NE	Trm Ltd/Open	WY	Freudenthal
NV	Trm Ltd/Open
NY	Pataki
OH	Trm Ltd/Open
RI	Carcieri
SC	Sanford
SD	Rounds
TX	Perry
VT*	Douglas
*Vermont & New Hampshire have two-year terms

Senate Races (33)
State	Republicans (15)	State	Democrats (17)
AZ	Kyl	CA	Feinstein
IN	Lugar	CT	Lieberman
ME	Snow	DE	Carper
MO	Talent	FL	Nelson
MS	Lott	HI	Akaka
MT	Burns	MD	Sarbanes
NV	Ensign	MA	Kennedy
OH	DeWine	MI	Stabenow
PA	Santorum	MN	Dayton
RI	Chafee	NE	Nelson
TN	Frist	NJ	Corzine
TX	Hutchinson	NM	Bingaman
UT	Hatch	NY	Clinton
VA	Allen	ND	Conrad
WY	Thomas	WA	Cantwell
		WV	Byrd
		WI	Kohl
		State	Independents (1)
		VT	Jeffords

Quick first impressions are that Republicans will have their work cut out for them defending Governor's mansions and will face strong challenges particularly in New York, Florida, Massachusetts, Maryland and Hawaii, and in open seats in Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada and Ohio, to name a few. The Dems will have to defend in places like Arizona, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wisconsin.

On the Senate side, the playing field of competitive races looks a bit smaller, but the names that pop out are more problematic for the Dems. The GOP will likely target first-termers Mark Dayton in Minnesota and Debbie Stabenow in Michigan, as well as Maria Cantwell in Washington and Bill Nelson in Florida.

Other potential problems for Democrats include Robert Byrd of West Virginia who will be 89 years old in 2006. Aside from the possibility that age (and health) could become an issue, should Byrd choose not to run Democrats would face defending an open seat in a Republican-trending state.

Also, the latest word is that Jon Corzine is "inclined" to run for Governor of New Jersey in 2005 which would leave another open seat for the Democrats, though they probably have an edge in keeping it in the Democratic-leaning Garden State.

Finally, keep your eye on Ben Nelson in Nebraska and Kent Conrad in North Dakota. Both are relatively popular Democratic Senators in deep-red states, which is exactly what Tom Daschle was - and we know how that turned out.

As for the Democrats, the pickings look pretty slim. They probably feel their best chance is knocking off Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania. As a member of the Republican leadership and a conservative in a state that tilts slightly to the Democrats, unseating Santorum will be high on the list of the Dem priorities.

Another possibility is first-termer Jim Talent in Missouri. Talent beat Jean Carnahan by just over 20,000 votes in the 2002 special election for this seat, but he is in a much better position to win reelection in a state that leans Republican.

Beyond that Dems have to look to score an upset in a place like Montana or hope for some unforeseen event - like a retirement - to put more seats into play. Anything is possible, but given where things stand today their prospects don't look too promising.

All in all it should be a very entertaining midterm, especially given what happened last Tuesday and knowing that, at least for those incumbents in the Senate, this will be their first time standing for election after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. - T. Bevan 3:30 pm Link | Email | Send to a Friend