Tuesday, October 5 2004
THOSE POST DEBATE POLLS: We now have nine post-debate polls and the results are very intriguing. Heading into the debate last Thursday the President was leading by around 5 1/2 points in the 3-Way RCP Poll Average, which as of this afternoon shows President Bush leading Senator Kerry by 1.6%. So in the 3-way RCP Poll Average it looks like Kerry received about a 4-point post-debate bump. The Head-to-Head Poll Average shows a similar boost, as Kerry has moved from trailing by a little over four points to only 0.3% today.

However, what is interesting about Kerry's post-debate "bump" is that over half of the post-debate polls actually show very little to no bump for Senator Kerry.

Little or No Post-Debate Bounce
Poll	Pre-Debate*	Post-Debate*	Change
Fox News	Bush +3	Bush +2.5	Kerry + 0.5
ABC News/WP	Bush +6	Bush +5	Kerry + 1
Zogby	Bush +3	Bush +2	Kerry + 1
Rasmussen	Bush +4	Bush +4	TIE
ARG	Bush +1	TIE	Kerry + 1
Significant Post-Debate Bounce
Poll	Pre-Debate*	Post-Debate*	Change
CNN/USAT/Gallup	Bush +8	TIE	Kerry + 8
CBS News/NYT	Bush +9	Bush +0.5	Kerry + 8.5
Newsweek	Bush +5.5	Kerry +2.5	Kerry +8
Average Post-Debate Bounce
Poll	Pre-Debate*	Post-Debate*	Change
Pew Research	Bush +8	Bush +5	Kerry +3
*Polling firms with 3-Way and Head-to-Head poll results have been averaged, so as to produce, one "horserace number" number.

I suspect the Kerry camp would have rather seen seven or eight out of nine of these polls showing movement towards Kerry of less magnitude, rather than three out of the nine polls showing a big swing with the other two-thirds relatively unchanged. In my mind this makes it a little more likely that this might be a temporary bump for Kerry as opposed to a more permanent change in the race. J. McIntyre 5:43 pm Link | Email | Send to a Friend