Saturday,
October 2 2004 MORE ON THE DEBATE: Here
are a cross-section of some emails we have received about
the debate.
I
think the MSM and even the right wing blogosphere watched
a different debate last night. My wife and I watched the
debate at Nixon's bar and restaurant in Phoenix. It was
a standing room only crowd of decidedly mixed political
affiliation. There were people sporting both Bush and Kerry
paraphernalia. There was no event being sponsored, but it
was clear almost everyone had come to watch the debate.
In that room last night Kerry not only didn't help himself
- he lost. When Kerry tried to talk tough - "I will kill
the terrorists" - truly spontaneous laughter broke out because
it was so phony. As the night wore on, many eyes rolled
as Kerry told his whoppers and spouted empty platitudes.
His, "I have a better plan for homeland security" was greeted
with, okay - what is it? But that question was never answered.
And by the end of the night no one even listened to him
talk, but they focused on the screen when the President
spoke. This morning at the gym, some of my "independent"
and "moderate" friends and acquaintances wondered aloud
what debate the punditocracy has watched. Everyone I talked
to today thought Bush won flat out and that Kerry was, well,
Kerry - self-important, wandering, and phony beyond belief.
No one believes that he "will kill the terrorists" everyone
believes that he will have a summit - probably Maui or Sun
Valley. And so I wonder - what debate did the scribblers
watch that the rest of America missed.
The
substance doesn't matter and you should know that...it's
all perception and the perception last night was that John
Kerry was presidential...Bush's numbers are not that strong
and neither are his internals...all Kerry has to do is give
the country a reasonable alternative - and he did that last
night. The curtain was pulled back from the Rove Wizard
of Oz spin machine and the mighty Wizard was revealed to
be a mere mortal, and not a very confident one at that...On
style and clarity of message Kerry won, but not on substance.
What Kerry said all night was wrong. Wrong, on rushing to
war, wrong on Iran, wrong on North Korea, wrong on the amount
of money spent to fight the terrorists, wrong on the subway
closing, wrong on where he was in Russia, wrong on suggesting
that Bush ordered Afghan fighters to lead in Tora Bora (it
was a military decision not political). Most importantly,
how can this be the wrong war and in Joe Lockhart's mind,
one that should not have been started, and then have Kerry
say that our soldier's are not dying in vain. It's one or
the other. If the war is wrong so to are the deaths. If
the war is right, then the sacrifices are heroic.Spin
all you want I`m a bush supporter and if he doesn`t improve
in the next two debates I may vote for Kerry. Bush just
came across as dumb as a brick, at least Kerry looks like
he can think on his feet. Also if Bush goes into election
day with less than a five point lead , don`t get to comfortable.I
think you're dead on. Actually, I have been watching the
Iowa Electronic Market and the Trade Sports Trading and
Betting Exchange and the manner in which those two have
been trading would indicate things looking up for Bush.
There were moments when Bush made me cringe last night but
on the whole he came out the better man. Kerry kept his
cool and did none or nearly none of the irksome things he's
prone to. But who has the sound bites? Bush is weighted
down with ammunition from the debate last night. Kerry has
a videotape of Bush's smirks. Big deal! Bush has the Global
Test line as well as numerous other bites that he is already
using on the campaign trail.In
my own informal survey which, though small (62 persons),
was sufficiently random to have statistical validity, the
key outcome is that the debate did not change anyone's mind.
This shocked me - not even 1? Ask persons whether the debate
changed their mind, regardless of their prior preference,
and I think you'll find the debate will not be a factor.
Incidentally, of the 62, 34 thought Kerry did better, 26
thought Bush, and the other two had no opinion. But again,
no one is changing their vote. In my view, Bush won all
he needed. Kerry needs more votes, not debate "victories".
Your
commentary is an obtuse equivocation for a poor performance
by the President. While I agree that Kerry won the debate,
I DON'T believe it was any kind of major victory. Those
kind of things rarely happen in debates. Perhaps Kerry gets
a 1-3 point bounce out of it. But maybe more importantly
is he gets people to tune into debate #2. Reading your commentary
makes it obvious that you too believe Bush didn't do very
well, if not out right lost. When you're reaching for strategy
assumptions to make sense of the win, or saying things like
Bush not making any gaffes means Kerry didn't win, you've
revealed more than you've written. (And the market angle
is absurd -- what indicator (which was positive) was released
this morning?) Bush appeared to be as limited as he has
always been. His repetition of a few phrases ("it's hard
work" or whatever it was) quickly revealed his lack of breadth
-- not his on-point message, as some conservatives have
been trying to spin. The president's answer to so many questions
can't be the same over and over. Plus, I think Bush being
out of his pre-approved audience campaign mode showed us
how insulated he really is. We'll see what happens with
the next debate. Again, it won't turn around the election,
but it may gain one candidate or the other another couple
of points. And in this tight race, that's important.Thank
you for your honest analysis. After having given it 24hrs+
to think about it, I think the President could have done
better, but scored some points on the"Global"issue etc.
I saw a clip of him in New Hampshire the next day---I wished
he had brought that game to the debates! Also, Kerry mentioned
at the debates that Bush would have done what he did in
Iraq knowing what he knows now. Excuse me, that was Kerry's
position a month ago! Why didn't Bush nail that? Anyway,
thanks for what you do, your website is one of the few places
I can go and get honest analysis that cuts through the spin.
