Tuesday,
October 26 2004
QUESTIONS WORTH PONDERING:
1)
IS HAWAII IN PLAY?: Michael Barone says "yes",
and it's never a good thing to find yourself disagreeing
with someone who knows as much about politics as Barone.
As a result of the two recent polls we've moved Hawaii to
"leaning Kerry" from the "solid Kerry"
column, but we're going to need to see a big move toward
the President in the national polls or more state polling
confirming these two numbers before we would be willing
to make Hawaii a "toss up."
2)
IS ARKANSAS IN PLAY? The last three polls show
the race in Arkansas surprisingly close, including a new
poll from Opinion Research Associates which has the
race tied. But two follow up stories on the internals from
the OPA poll are worth noting.
First,
sixty-three
percent of voters in Arkansas list the issue of gay
marriage as "somewhat" or "very important."
In a previous OPA poll taken just two weeks ago 80% of those
surveyed were in favor of Amendment 3 which would define
marriage as only between one man and one woman. Second,
"60 percent of voters think a candidate's stand on
gun rights is important in deciding how to vote in the presidential
race."
It's
hard to see how John Kerry is going to pull off an upset
in Arkansas with these issues being such a prominent part
of the mix this election. Like Hawaii in reverse, we would
need to see major movement towards Kerry in the national
polls or a couple more state polls before we would believe
Arkansas is really in play, Bubba
or not.
3)
WILL AFRICAN-AMERICANS TURN OUT FOR KERRY? This
is obviously one of the keys to the election and deserves
to be discussed in much more detail. We've all seen the
recent poll showing Bush with nearly double the African-American
support he got in 2000 and Kerry running about eleven points
worse than Gore. Now comes this
from today's St. Petersburg Times:
Anything
but strong turnout and overwhelming African-American support
for Kerry could doom his chances. In 2000, record black
turnout in Florida helped turn Florida into a virtual
tie that took Republicans by surprise. This year, the
mobilization effort is far greater, with a major focus
on getting people to vote early.
But
for all the anecdotal evidence of heavy African-American
turnout, there are hints that Kerry might not be doing
as strongly as he needs to be. At a John Edwards rally
in St. Petersburg on Saturday, white people held "African-Americans
for Kerry-Edwards" placards.
A
St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll released Sunday
showed Bush more than doubling his support from black
voters since 2000, with 19 percent support. That estimate
is imprecise because the pollsters surveyed fewer than
100 likely black voters in Florida, and the Kerry-Edwards
campaign says its internal polling never shows Bush in
double digits. But it mirrors a national poll released
last week showing 18 percent of African-Americans backing
Bush.
Kerry's
ability to turnout the black vote in big numbers is infinitely
more important to his candidacy than it is for Bush to win
an extra three percent support among African-American voters
this year. If the trends we're seeing are real, then Kerry's
inability to generate enthusiasm for him - as opposed to
just stoking antipathy toward his opponent - could cost
him precious votes in important battleground states.
- T. Bevan 8:24 am Link
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