Wednesday, October 13 2004
STATE POLLS: We are getting dozens of emails asking, questioning, complaining how we do our state polling averages. In an ideal world we would like to have four or five post debate polls in all the battleground states. While there are many states where we do have plenty of post-debate polls (Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey, Florida, etc...) we also have several states where we have one or no post-debate polls.

Obviously, the power of averaging increases with the number of quality non-partisan polls in the average. With many states we are in an in- between period where we have to balance keeping as many polls as possible in the averages while also keeping the polls that are included in the average as current as possible so as to reflect real-time changes in the race.

Minnesota and Wisconsin are two states that currently reflect this difficulty. In Minnesota we have two polls taken Oct 8 - Oct 11 and then the next most recent poll is in September. Wisconsin is similar as there are only two nonpartisan polls in October.

The Minnesota situation is complicated because one of the two polls is the Minnesota Star-Tribune Poll which habitually skews to the Democrats. In reality, the Star-Tribune poll is good news for President Bush because it shows movement of four points toward the President since their last poll. Given the Star-Tribune's track record, a five point lead for Kerry probably amounts to a dead heat race in the real world. (The Star-Tribune called for a 10-point Gore win in their final 2000 poll. The final margin of victory for Gore was only 2 points.) The Chicago Tribune's just-released midwestern state polls also seem to validate the idea that President Bush is running strong in Minnesota. Their poll has Bush trailing by only two points and running 2 points better in Minnesota than they show him running in Wisconsin and Ohio.

While Minnesota is without a doubt a state that is trending Republican, it is still going to be a tough state for the President to win, especially since Nader is unlikely to draw as much support as he he did in 2000.
When you look at all of the the public polls in Minnesota since the beginning of this race in March, Bush has led in only one. It is Kerry's consistent lead in the state more than anything else that prompted us to move Minnesota from a "Toss Up" to "Leaning Kerry" in our Electoral Vote Count.

By the way, Bush supporters can take hope in the fact that the one poll that has showed President Bush ahead was Mason-Dixon (completed in mid-September ) and Mason-Dixon's Brad Coker nailed the Coleman-Mondale race in 2002 when the Star-Tribune and Zogby were both calling for a Mondale win.

We have left Wisconsin as "Leaning Bush" for much the same reason we moved Minnesota to "Leaning Kerry." When you look at all of the polls since July, Kerry hasn't led in a single one (not counting partisan polls and Internet polls) until this most recent Chicago Tribune poll. We would like to see more evidence than just one 500 LV Chicago Tribune poll to convince us Kerry has pulled back to even in Wisconsin.

If this happens, we'll move the state, but until then we would tend to view the Tribune poll as a possible outlier. Like Minnesota, Wisconsin is trending Republican and Kerry's "Lambert Field" gaffe is not inconsequential to anyone who has spent any time in the Badger State.

Across the board the state polls are sending mixed signals. Trailing by two points in the Quinnipiac Poll in Pennsylvania is good news for Bush, but trailing Kerry in all three post-debate Ohio polls is not. CNN/USA Today/Gallup has President Bush ahead by three in New Mexico (a tied state in 2000 ) while at the same time trailing by three in Colorado (a state Bush carried by 9 points in 2000). [Late Correction: That Gallup poll has the race in Colorado tied, 49-49, not a three point Kerry lead.]

The Chicago Tribune polls showing Bush down in Ohio and Wisconsin is bad news for the President, but at the same time we have Strategic Vision polls countering those with Bush ahead 5 in Wisconsin and 8 in Ohio. Even if you discount 3-5 points because Strategic Vision is or was a partisan polling firm, these are still good numbers for the President.

While the states are where this election will be decided because of the Electoral College, for the next week the national polls are probably a better guide to gauge where the race is headed. Generally speaking, the state polls do seem to be following the national lead more or less, with a little lag time and a few quirks here and there.

Kerry's performance in the first debate effectively closed the President 's 5-6 point lead down to only 1-2 points. Since then, the race has held fairly steady with a slight Bush lead through two more major events: the Vice-Presidential debate last Wednesday and the second Presidential debate last Friday night.

Tonight's debate has the potential to cause a break out for either candidate. A draw or a preservation of the status quo probably favors the President marginally, though Bush supporters will feel considerably better if they see few nonpartisan polls in Ohio showing the President ahead. Keep your eye on the RCP National Poll Average, and expect the battleground state polls to follow that lead. J. McIntyre 2:02 pm Link | Email | Send to a Friend