Obama Set to Scrape Out a Victory

By John Cassidy, The New Yorker - November 2, 2012

 After all the drama of the past few days, it may seem anticlimactic to suggest that not much has changed in the election. That’s what the latest polls are telling us, though. Going into the final weekend of the campaign, it’s still a tight race, but President Obama retains a distinct advantage in the electoral college. Unless the pollsters are wrong, or there is a last-minute swing to Mitt Romney, the Democratic incumbent looks set to scrape out a victory.

Obviously, there is a lot of interest in how Obama’s adroit response to Hurricane Sandy, and the problems it has posed for his opponent, are affecting the race. With much of the polling, especially in the state surveys, still reflecting questioning that was done before the storm hit, it is hard to say. At the national level, the tracking polls that are still operating—Gallup suspended its survey on Monday and hasn’t restarted it yet—suggest that remarkably little has changed. In today’s update from Rasmussen, Romney is leading by two points: 49 to 47. That’s the same lead he had on Monday, before the storm came ashore. The Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll also shows no change. In its poll completed on Monday, Obama was leading by one point. Ditto in today’s update, which was based on questioning completed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the latest Washington Post/ABC News tracker has the race tied, just as it did before the storm hit.

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