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As the 2012 election gets underway, President Obama is still waiting to see who his opponent will be. Candidates and campaigns matter hugely, of course, but we should also pay attention to the field on which the match will be played—and at first glance, the lay of the political land doesn’t look so favorable to Obama and his party.

The lingering economic slump has demoralized voters and tilted the electorate rightward. With idle workers, un- derwater homeowners, exploding deficits and debts, growing inequality, and a bitter, broken political system, ob- jective reality isn’t exactly working in incumbents’ favor.