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Want a measure of how bad November 2 could be for the Democrats? Take a look at South Dakota—home of the Badlands, the Corn Palace, Mt. Rushmore, and a Democratic party that we know isn’t dead only because from time to time it twitches in its sleep.

Here’s one sign of how far the tide has ebbed: Eight years ago, Republican John Thune lost, by a slim margin, to Democratic senator Tim Johnson. Two years later, running for the state’s other U.S. Senate seat, Thune managed to slip past the Democrats’ Senate leader Tom Daschle—a close race that seemed, at the time, a major upset.