Over the last several days, old friends and family around the country have contacted me with the same questions: ‘Do they have the votes? What is going to happen?’ Maybe they think that, living inside the Beltway, I get some secret newsletter that can divine what Congress will do. To all of them and you, let me be clear: I have no idea what is going to happen tonight. We have slipped well beyond any rational political thought or calculation. By any traditional analysis, this bill would have been buried long ago. So, while I don’t know what is going to happen, it is worth thinking a bit about what is going on. On that I have something to say.

The Democrats and the White House are lost in a legislative “fog of war” right now. They are...