Since House Democrats remain fairly seized with terror at the political ramifications of passing health care reform, it's worth stepping back and thinking clearly about the Democrats' predicament. The November elections look bad for three basic reasons. First, the Republican base is extremely energized, for reasons that were probably inevitable due to Democrats running all three branches of government, in an era when Republicans have very effective communication media for whipping up their base. Second, independents are highly skeptical, which was also mostly inevitable when the party took power just after the economy began a free-fall.

The third problem, which has received little attention, is the demoralized Democratic base. The elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and...