Although Democrats are favored to hold the seat of the late Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., Republicans here and in Massachusetts have increasingly touted the Jan. 19 special election as an opportunity for an upset.

If that happens, it could have an immediate impact on the Democrats' struggle to get health care reform legislation passed. A GOP gain in Massachusetts would sink the Democrats in the Senate below the filibuster-resistant 60-40 majority they now hold, with the help of two independents, and leave any compromise between House and Senate versions of the health care bill vulnerable to being blocked by Senate Republicans.

ARCHIVE: Previous columns from Chuck Raasch

Most observers...