Democrats are bracing for a precipitous drop in black voter turnout next month and beyond.

Alarms are being rung about just how many African-Americans will vote without President Barack Obama on the ballot, and the New Jersey and Virginia governors' races in three weeks will provide the first major test since the 2008 election.

A recent Washington Post survey estimated the black turnout in Virginia's governor's race at 12 percent, which would be about a 40 percent drop from last year's general election. Other polling has shown both its and New Jersey's black population unmoved about the off-year election.

The question at this point isn't so much whether black voters will turn out at 2008 levels, but how big the drop will be "”...